Sanctions work.
This is what frustrates me so much about people in the US arguing against supporting Ukraine. At the end of the day, while China might be willing to help Russia, the US is by far it's largest customer. Add to that China's own economy is contracting, and supporting Ukraine against Putin, along with the severe sanctions that have been in place, is the smartest most cost effective way of hopefully removing him from power. I have a co-worker who got out of Russia a little over a year ago, and he said it was pretty bad before he and his family left. Unfortunately, it's a slow process because the goal is to get the Russian people to oust him. We all know that's not going to happen at the ballot box, so all that's left is the people overthrowing their leaders. Things have to get pretty dire before a population like Russia's gets to that tipping point.
This is a marathon. The main thing is keeping Ukraine strong and able to defend itself. I'm really liking the offensives into Russian territory they've been carrying out. I just want them to remember a defensive position is easier to maintain/win than an offensive one. In other words, don't try to go to far into Russia. Way way too many great generals have made that mistake!
US is by far it’s largest customer
That's true and there's also more to it.
The US is China's largest single trading partner but China has many many trading partners.
May nations now trade or at least negotiate in blocks. Both ASEAN and the UE, as blocks, do more trade with China than the US does. When it comes to individual nations the US isn't as far ahead as it might seem. Russia, Vietnam and Taiwan together trade more with China than the US does, despite having a combined GDP that's a tiny fraction of the US.
The key issue is that China has been working really hard to make itself less dependent on the US. They still have a way to go but they're much less vulnerable than they were a few years ago.
Fair points, but I would also add that while the US isn’t a block, they do hold sway with a number of other countries. NATO is also involved in this equation. China also has significant investments in the US. I don’t fault China for seeing economic opportunity in Russia, but they have to walk a pretty fine line if they’re going to make it work.
China knows that the US has a lot of economic leverage. They've been working very hard to change that and a lot of those efforts have flown under the radar.
BRI is pretty obvious and it's seen as one of the major reason the ASEAN countries are pivoting towards China. But consider the whole South China Sea issue. Everyone frames it as a contest over sea resources and few people consider the strait of Malacca. It's a potential choke point for all trade west of Southeast Asia. While China is working to be able to defend that they're also working with Thailand to build a canal that would bypass the straight of Malacca all together. All of that is primarily to reduce US leverage and those initiatives tend to work more often than they fail.
Not fast enough. I agree they work, but often times it hurts all the people, and the ones that have "say" often are slow to help their fellow people.
Hence, the point of sanctions.
How is hurting everyone the point?
To piggyback on @Syntha@sh.itjust.works, the point of sanctions is to create an extreme economic cost to a state as a bargaining chip. Stop doing the thing we don't like and you get your trade back. Unfortunately, states control the national currency (most of the time), which means anyone who uses that currency also gets hit. There is no way around that.
Politically speaking, a majority of Russians have been utterly disenfranchised from politics, repeating the refrain "I'm not political" like it's a magic spell that will ward off the consequences of their government. Consequently I'm not that sad about them experiencing a bit of economic hardship. Maybe it'll help them realize that politics isn't just for politicians.
Their country, their responsibility.
The Germans learned that lesson the hard way.
Exactly. In any semi-functional democracy the government isn't some abstract entity you have no power over, and it's not monolithic either (you have municipal, regional and national levels). You vote for the people in it and they represent you.
Incrimental economical hardships get obfuscated by the state so no one draws a line between that and the war, or if they do, they have 1000+1 reasons why it went this way thanks to propaganda. Until it is a direct shock treatment at some industries, it would be toned down by the effort of local economical institutions. I'm the outlier in buying things in non-chinese services and following western media it seems, and slowing down the YouTube was the first event when I noticed many previously apolitical person to find their ways to circumvent the ban.
The most energized groups are those of recent soldiers and their families, and their protests get shut down fast. It's genuinely afraid of them. And it feels like the way it would happen.
Maybe. The point of the sanctions isn't to cause unrest though, as I said, it's to apply pressure to the state. If it happens to cause some unrest, that's an unlikely side-benefit.
No, you're right, we can't do anything beyond harsh criticism, no, even that's too far, what if we hurt some of the genocider's feelings?
They're sending their kids into a meat grinder because they hope other people's kids will feel more pain in that same meat grinder.
You can't avoid that in a dictatorship or oligarchy. You freeze all of their money? They will just steal more from the population.
I guess the financial market is being reduced to ruble
Maybe they shouldn't have invaded Ukraine.
the question is if they could still pull out of the war
Putin’s fragile ego won’t allow that.
Ukraine doesn't have the resources to start some weird revenge conquest, given that their allies fear MAD.
Hot take:
China has lost all faith in Russia. Is reorganizing to reflect that.
And maybe is even considering Taiwan's advice, lol.
What's "Taiwan's advice"? What did Taiwan tell China about Russia?
Taiwan made a sarcastic comment.
Essentially calling out their policy of "Territorial Integrity", they told them to take back land they gave to Russia
Ohhh that one. I see. Thanks.
The president or prime minister said that if China is serious about reclaiming Taiwan, it should also reclaim land that is currently Russian, as that land was also lost during the same time period.
It would also be much easier to conquer than Taiwan.
Hotter take:
China is on the brink of financial collapse and no longer can afford to support Russia’s bullshit.
I hope Ukraine takes away their natural gas production next. Gonna be the USSU pretty soon, get fucked Putin.
Well... India is still a partner so Putin still has that...
India is taking advantage of the situation.
It's understandable that a developing country wants cheap energy, also genuinely sad the world's largest democracy is funding a dictator's barbaric land grab.
"world's largest democracy" run by a fascist, who embraces pogroms against the Muslim minorities and assists Israel in its genocide against palestinians, including sending India troops there.
Of course Israel is best buddies with Modi in the same way they sold drones to Russia after the Crimea annexation, which later helped Russia bomb Ukraine during the main invasion. Neither country is a liberal democracy, nor do they share interests with "the West" past their own immediate advantage.
India is financially supporting colonization of Ukraine by doing business with Russia.
India is supporting colonization.
All India cares about is getting oil and gas for as cheap as possible. Russia has limited markets they can sell their oil to, so India now has tons of leverage and can set their own price. India has their own territorial conflicts with Pakistan and China that they need to worry about. They dont care what Russia does so long as they keep getting cheap oil.
what happens when they run out? do they have to start buying more yans from somewhere else?
Buy them with what? No one want their rubles 😁and they haven't enough "stuff" to sell lol.
It would be interesting to see the ruble collapse entirely. Crypto is already very popular in Russia, so the state could lose a tremendous amount of power/funding when they need it most.
Do you feel that Putler? That's the walls closing in.
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