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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost (www.newsweek.com)

submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by ByteOnBikes@slrpnk.net to c/news@lemmy.world

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Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

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[-] NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world 151 points 3 months ago

As much as I want this to be true (well I'd rather him be losing in all polls), this is disinformation at this moment.

The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)

Under "In this tracker"

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Additionally, I don't see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

[-] doughless@lemmy.world 19 points 3 months ago

Maybe impartial information more than disinformation. It's still likely the responses from late Saturday and Sunday would have impacted the percentage by at least 1 or 2 points. The fact it stayed the same hopefully means that at best it simply prevented Biden from taking the lead.

[-] NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world 8 points 3 months ago

Maybe, but considering this information is highlighted in the poll's key points (immediately following and under the same point used for the title) doesn't look good. It means that Newsweek is either doing a poor job at covering this (they didn't even provide a direct link to the poll), or they are intentionally leaving out key details.

It's also possible that they are only looking at a subset of the data that only focuses on people that were questioned the day after the event, but without a pro+ subscription I can't tell if seperating out that group is even possible (if it even lists out which day a person was questioned) and that's ignoring the impact on the reliability of those numbers given a largely reduced dataset.

Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis

In the end, I'm waiting to see what the polls look like in battleground states to see how this event has really affected the situation.

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[-] retrospectology@lemmy.world 81 points 3 months ago

I think this confirms what we kind of already know; Trump has maxed out his support, and it's not much. Turnout is key for Democrats.

[-] smeenz@lemmy.nz 12 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Not just key, but absolutely critical. Every single maga voter is going to turn out, and gerrymandering gives them a huge advantage as will the corrupt scotus. There will also be voter and voting fraud in favour of maga because if they win it doesn't matter. There will also be evidence found of democrat voting fraud, so that they can claim both sides are the same.

The only thing that will win this for the dems is overcoming apathy and voting in utterly overwhelming numbers, particularly in swing states.

[-] DaddleDew@lemmy.world 80 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

There are those who see through Trump's bullshit and those who don't. And those who see through it won't have their views changed by this event.

We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were turned. He wouldn't have condemned the violence. He would have made evasive and vague statements suggesting that the violence should continue. We know that because he has done it before. Many times. As a matter of fact he did call for political violence against Hillary in 2016 when he suggested that "the second amendment people should do something about it".

We are not fooled. We might not approve of political violence. But no amount of playing the victim is doing to make us forget that he is still a scumbag. We will vote him out.

[-] oxjox@lemmy.ml 37 points 3 months ago

There are those who see through Trump’s bullshit and those who don’t.

What has baffled me for the past eight years is how many people, since day one, have not observed him for who he really is. I still can not comprehend how he was elected president and is again the nominee for the Republican Party.

He has zero redeeming qualities. By all measures, he has the record of being the worst president in modern times. But most people don't actually care about legislation or politics or this country - they only care about themselves and the "vibe" they get from someone.

We live in a world where verifiable lies are shaping our reality. The people who claim to be patriots are traitors to the intent of this nation. I just do not understand how the brains of some people veil them from what's being presented directly in front of them. Moreover, I have no idea how this doesn't keep getting worse.

[-] retrospectology@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

He was elected because Democrats thought they could exploit his lack of support to force Clinton on everyone. They were wrong.

Trump's victory is more about Democratic strategic failure than anything else, they gave him the election.

[-] EldritchFeminity 9 points 3 months ago

I have a friend who is obsessed with learning about cults, and he recently said that Trump's speeches sound exactly like Jim Jones.

The way it works is that you say something kinda crazy and lose maybe 10% of your followers. Now you know what you can get away with with the other 90%. Repeat this until you get the 30-50% of people that will eat up anything you say (or won't leave due to sunk cost fallacy/can't admit that they were wrong), and you have Trump's base.

These are people who have either drunk the Flavor-Aid, love him because he says the things they're afraid to say out loud, or are just too deep now and can't get out.

[-] KoboldCoterie@pawb.social 7 points 3 months ago

He has a cult of personality. They (the GOP) don't seem to like him either based on how many of them denounced him at various points over the past 8 years, but they know he's their best chance of winning, so they made him the candidate. They don't care who the candidate is, as long as it's one of their people.

[-] Erasmus@lemmy.world 12 points 3 months ago

We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were switched. He wouldn't have condemned the violence.

“People that get shot are losers!”

Trump in an alternate timeline

[-] Fedizen@lemmy.world 64 points 3 months ago

If Trump loses the election he got shot for nothing and will have the worlds most hilarious breakdown. Make it so.

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[-] Gobbel2000@programming.dev 42 points 3 months ago

Can we just take a step back and admire how completely bizarre this title sounds out of context?

[-] Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago

Ikr, If someone woke up from a coma today, this headline without context looks like the Trump Fifth Avenue quote actually happened.

I swear they could be better with these headlines.

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[-] snooggums@midwest.social 38 points 3 months ago

That's how shitty of a person he is. Every other terrible person got a boost from almost dying.

[-] GiddyGap@lemm.ee 33 points 3 months ago

People are in their trenches. Nothing is going to change that. It's not like a lot of Trump voters, if any, would all of a sudden vote for Joe Biden if some ass had tried to kill him.

[-] sudo@programming.dev 30 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The shooting changed no ones votes yet it completely demoralized the Dems to the point that their leadership think its over. The reason is they don't know what to campaign on anymore. They're too scared to run a negative campaign anymore. But they are also incapable of running any sort of positive campaign.

[-] PriorityMotif@lemmy.world 16 points 3 months ago

That's why Biden said he would try to put a cap on rent increases. It will never happen, but it gets people's attention.

[-] sudo@programming.dev 13 points 3 months ago

Actually promising a better future is a better strategy than listing his 'achievements' IMO. Problem is everyone remembers how they didn't get their 2k covid checks, or how their student loans weren't forgiven.

[-] Passerby6497@lemmy.world 12 points 3 months ago

Problem is everyone remembers how they didn’t get their 2k covid checks, or how their student loans weren’t forgiven.

And every one of those stupid motherfuckers blames Biden instead of the republicans who stopped them....

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[-] MonkderDritte@feddit.de 21 points 3 months ago

That he get's ~45%, how sad.

[-] TheDarksteel94@sopuli.xyz 20 points 3 months ago

Man, I really hope for the US and the rest of the world that most Democrats show up to vote. Otherwise, we know who to blame if Trump wins.

[-] nossaquesapao@lemmy.eco.br 17 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

If the margin of error is of 2 points, you can't say that trump is leading, because both are statistically tied. I hate biased journalism.

[-] zabadoh@ani.social 10 points 3 months ago

Because the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, a Democratic presidential candidate has to be several points ahead in a national poll to even think about being level, in terms of electoral votes, which are the only things that really count in a presidential race.

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[-] exanime@lemmy.world 16 points 3 months ago

Make sense... those who drank the kool aid are in for him no matter what... getting shot at does not seem like a deciding factor for anyone "on the fence"

[-] DudeImMacGyver@sh.itjust.works 15 points 3 months ago

Yeah, he's kinda capped out on support. That shouldn't be too surprising.

[-] Bluefalcon@discuss.tchncs.de 14 points 3 months ago

I feel with Vance getting the VP pick and the Trump run RNC, that Republicans believe they have the numbers. They are doing nothing to get swing voters and I'm glad to see that.

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[-] cley_faye@lemmy.world 14 points 3 months ago

Well, his "followers" where already convinced to vote for him, and he's so far out that people that did not follow him already actually have enough brain to not equate "assassination attempt" with "he's a hero", so there's that.

[-] breadsmasher@lemmy.world 14 points 3 months ago

aww did lil babby need a plaster for his lil oopsie?

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[-] MyOpinion@lemm.ee 11 points 3 months ago

I just hope he gets the post-shooting boot. Let him go back to making terrible shows and not running our country.

[-] Deceptichum@quokk.au 15 points 3 months ago

No?

Let him go to gaol for his crimes and trying to coup your country.

[-] Leviathan@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

I just never saw why he would. The people voting for him are cultists. The people against him have already been disgusted by him in one way or another, I just can't imagine how getting grazed would change their minds.

[-] frankgrimeszz@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago

Polls don’t account for the Grey Death that will arise from the nursing homes to vote when the time comes. Nor does it account for the younger generations who argue about politics online but won’t bother actually voting.

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[-] Tire@lemmy.ml 9 points 3 months ago

They way things work these days the shooting will be forgotten in 2 weeks.

[-] derpgon@programming.dev 7 points 3 months ago

It's been 2 days and I already stopped seeing posts about it.

[-] demizerone@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago

This mother f'er has to be the luckiest human to ever live.

[-] tmpod@lemmy.pt 7 points 3 months ago

Isn't 2k voters a comically small sample to draw any results from? I hope it is true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[-] nexguy@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago

I think 2k is a bit larger than the average polls I've seen which are 400 to 1500 usually.

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[-] card797@champserver.net 6 points 3 months ago

See 2020. The same result is quite likely. I don't care what any new organization or poll says. Don't care.

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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024

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