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Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages
(abcnews.go.com)
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this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024
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538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.
Polls are shit, have a plan and get out and vote.
VOTE!!!
No they didn't. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That's not "had Hillary beating Trump" that's "Hillary was more likely to win than Trump."
I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It wasn't 100%. It's a forecast not a premonition.
Sure, Jan
You know how the internet works, right?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
You know how probability works right? No, of course you don't. Almost nobody does...
Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it's time for a grenade.
Hah! Excellent example. 😆