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this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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Technology
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Good thing about this is it’s self selecting, all the luddites who refuse to use AI will find themselves at a disadvantage just the same as refusing to use a computer isn’t doing anyone any favours.
The benefit of AI is overblown for a majority of product tiers. Remember how everything was supposed to be block chain? And metaverse? And web 3.0? And dot.com? This is just the next tech trend for dumb VCs to throw money at.
Yes, it's very hyped and being overused. Eventually the bullshit artists will move on to the next buzzword, though, and then there's plenty of tasks it is very good at where it will continue to grow.
Except those things didn't really solve any problems. Well, dotcom did, but that actually changed our society.
AI isn't vaporware. A lot of it is premature (so maybe overblown right now) or just lies, but ChatGPT is 18 months old and look where it is. The core goal of AI is replacing human effort, which IS a problem wealthy people would very much like to solve and has a real monetary benefit whenever they can. It's not going to just go away.
Can you trust whatever AI you use, implicitly? I already know the answer, but I really want to hear people say it. These AI hype men are seriously promising us capabilities that may appear down the road, without actually demonstrating use cases that are relevant today. “Some day it may do this, or that”. Enough already, it’s bullshit.
Yes? AI is a lot of things, and most have well-defined accuracy metrics that regularly exceed human performance. You're likely already experiencing it as a mundane tool you don't really think about.
If you're referring specifically to generative AI, that's still premature, but as I pointed out, the interactive chat form most people worry about is 18 months old and making shocking levels of performance gains. That's not the perpetual "10 years away" it's been for the last 50 years, that's something that's actually happening in the near term. Jobs are already being lost.
People are scared about AI taking over because they recognize it (rightfully) as a threat. That's not because they're worthless. If that were the case you'd have nothing to fear.
ChatGPT didn't begin 18 months ago, the research that it originates from has been ongoing for years, how old is alexnet?
I'm referencing ChatGPT's initial benchmarks to its capabilities to today. Observable improvements have been made in less than two years. Even if you just want to track time from the development of modern LLM transformers (All You Need is Attention/BERT), it's still a short history with major gains (alexnet isn't really meaningfully related). These haven't been incremental changes on a slow and steady march to AI sometime in the scifi scale future.
AlexNet is related, it was the first use of consumer gpus to train neutral networks no?
No, not even remotely. And that's kind of like citing "the first program to run on a CPU" as the start of development for any new algorithm.
As far as I can find out, there was only one use of GPUs prior to alexnet for CNN, and it certainty didn't have the impact alexnet had. Besides, running this stuff on GPUs not CPUs is a relevant technological breakthrough, imagine how slow chayGPT would be running on a CPU. And it's not at all as obvious as it seems, most weather forecasts still run on CPU clusters despite them being obvious targets for GPUs.
What? Alexnet wasn't a breakthrough in that it used GPUs, it was a breakthrough for its depth and performance on image recognition benchmarks.
We knew GPUs could speed up neural networks in 2004. And I'm not sure that was even the first.
Okay, so some of the advances that chatGPT uses (consumer GPUs for training) are even older? 😁
Why stop there? The digital computer was introduced in 1942 and methods for solving linear equations were developed in the 1600s.
Blockchain is used in more places than you'd expect... not the P2P version, or the "cryptocurrency" version, just the "signature based chained list" one. For example, all signed Git commits, form a blockchain.
The Metaverse has been bubbling on and off for the last 30 years or so, each iteration it gets slightly better... but it keeps failing at the same points (I think I wrote about it 20+ years ago, with points which are still valid).
Web 3.0, not to be confused with Web3, is the Semantic Web, in the works for the last 20+ years. Web3 is a cool idea for a post-scarcity world, pretty useless right now.
Dot.com was the original Web bubble... and here we are, on the Web, post-bubble.
Luddites were not idiots, they were people who understood the only use of tech at their time was to fuck them. Like this complete garbage shit is going to be used to fuck people. Nobody is opposed to having tools, we just don't like Musk fanboys blowing spit bubbles while trying to get peepee hard
If capitalism is shit you attack capitalism not a technology.
All the misplaced rage and wasted effort.
@Marsupial you might want to read up on Luddites. Here's a good place to start:
https://www.techwontsave.us/episode/187_the_real_history_of_the_luddites_w_brian_merchant
@MayonnaiseArch
That literally tells the story of a people’s losing their livelihood due to capitalist usage of technology, and targeting the technology instead of the systemic issue.
You say this like destroying the technology wasn't their way of targeting the systemic issue? Destroying expensive machinery has been used by labour time and again as a tactic to get the capitalist class to cough up.
Maybe he wants guillotines
Capitalists have an answer to this, it's called the Pinkertons...
Good thing about this is it’s self selecting, all the technobros who obsess over AI will find themselves bankrupted like when the blockchain bubble bursted.
The blockchain bubble burst because everyone with a brain could see from the start that it wasn't really a useful technology. AI actually does have some advantages so they won't go completely bust as long as they don't go completely mad and start declaring that it can do things it can't do.
Which is exactly what's happening.
The fact that it is useful technology though means they'll always have a fullback. It's not going to go way like bitcoin I guarantee it.
Bitcoin went away? It's at like $67k today. Personally I prefer sustainable cryptos but unfortunately Bitcoin is far from dead.
And sure, there's lots of data processing and statistics that's extremely useful. That's been the case for a long time. But anybody talking about "intelligence" is a con.
GameStop also went up. It doesn't mean GameStop is a good company that's valuable to own, it just means that dumb people will buy things without value if they think they can eventually pass the bag to someone else. If someone purchased every share of Amazon they'd own a massive asset that would continually produce value for them. If someone bought every outstanding Bitcoin, it both wouldn't produce ongoing value, but the value would actually go to zero.
Like say, treating a program that shows you the next most likely word to follow the previous one on the internet like it is capable of understanding a sentence beyond this is the most likely string of words to follow the given input on the internet. Boy it sure is a good thing no one would ever do something so brainless as that in the current wave of hype.
It’s also definitely becuse autocompletes have made massive progress recently, and not just because we’ve fed simpler and simpler transformers more and more data to the point we’ve run out of new text on the internet to feed them. We definitely shouldn’t expect that the field as a whole should be valued what it was say back in 2018, when there were about the same number of practical uses and the foucus was on better programs instead of just throwing more training data at it and calling that progress that will continue to grow rapidly even though the amount of said data is very much finite.
AIs are fancy matrix multiplications
Check Q*, Google's Gemini is already using a similar approach.
When did the blockchain bubble burst? Is crypto dead again? I missed it.
It dies every year since 2010.
Only NFTs died, so I guess part of crypto did.