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TRUMP GUILTY ON ALL 34 COUNTS
(www.bbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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I dont think that moved anyone. Like I really dont. The laptop thing was only interesting to Trump die-hards.
Maybe, but it happened right before the election. I observed noticeable shift in attitude. That's not good evidence, I know, but Clinton's polls which had been steady, took a 3% dip at the time and stayed down through election day.
People talked about the polls being off compared to the election, but the election matched the post-Comey polls pretty well. It's only the polls that mixed pre-Comey data that were too high for Clinton.
If you are interested in doing a more detailed analysis of this, I can supply you with some boiler plate code. 538 has pretty detailed polling data that's free to download. I'm going to be getting into it later in June for my monthly polling update.
I was considering calculating Trumps polling error differential from 2016 and seeing how it changed to 2020. I did a map of his differential polling error for 2020 for my update two weeks ago.
I'm also considering of taking the differential polling result for just swing states, applying it to current polling, and mapping out a series of 'pathways' to 270 for each candidate, highlighting where the pressure points are.
I think a trying to model the impact of a single news story could be pretty interesting.