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Joe Biden suddenly leads Donald Trump in multiple polls
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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Polls don't mean shit, go vote
Yeah, the polls had Hillary winning easily in 2016. Don't trust them.
They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win. If you predict 90% chance that something will happen, and it always happens, your prediction is wrong because you should have predicted 100%.
When I hear someone say "you can't trust the polls because they got 2016 'wrong'" they are just telling me they don't understand statistics.
And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.
I'm not sure this is entirely true. Many polls just look at the popular vote, but most of the polls that claim "chance of winning" take into account the EC.
538 had her going into the election with a 70% chance of winning the electoral college. Nate Silver also went on multiple shows basically doing everything he could to get people to understand that meant 3 out of 10 times she loses.