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F-16s for Ukraine: When will they arrive and what can they do?
(kyivindependent.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Jan 2024
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Last I heard was not earlier than March. Allegedly they can shoot down Russian planes, because their targeting systems have longer range.
Russian air superiority is said to be a huge problem for Ukraine, and the main reason their spring offensive last year failed.
The reverse is probably going to be true, unfortunately. The F16s weaponry is still based on 70s/80s engagement envelopes, more modern Russian a/c use missiles/radar that have much further range. The F16s will be most effective where UKR has additional anti-air assets to keep the more modern a/c away.
A very good breakdown of this by someone who's studied military aircraft for a living...
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/its-the-range-stupid-part-1
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/its-the-range-stupid-part-2
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/q-and-a-regarding-f-16s-for-ukraine
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/q-and-a-regarding-f-16s-for-ukraine-51d
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/q-and-a-regarding-f-16-for-ukraine
There's quite a few problems with the analysis being done by "Sarcastosaurus" and I've a mind to go at him about them. However a fundamental problem is his assumption that the F-16 is headed to Ukraine to engage in dogfights with Russian Fighters. It's not.
The F-16 is headed to Ukraine to be used as a missile truck, specifically a NATO missile truck. This is important because NATO countries can supply parts and armaments for the airframes, something they cannot do with Ukraine's current selection of former USSR airframes. Additionally the NATO armaments are integrated with the platform and are able to use their full capability.
A good example of this is the AGM-88 HARM. Ukraine is currently using them but because they're being jury rigged onto MiGs instead of a NATO aircraft they only have access to the "Pre Briefed" mode, which drastically curtails their capability. On a NATO plane the TOO and SP modes are unlocked which will be an absolute game changer for dealing with ground based radar threats.
If / when those are dealt with then the F-16 can stop flying SEAD missions and start putting warheads on foreheads by dropping JDAMs, which will have an immediate impact on the ground war. Those F-16s will likely be flying inside the envelope of Ukraine's own air defense systems and absolutely NONE of Russia's planes are safe from those. Add on some CAP flights by Ukraine's remaining MiGs and those F-16s will be flying in relative safety and comfort.
Only time will tell how the Ukrainian's choose to use their F-16s and how well they perform in the role(s) they are tasked with but the presumption that they're going to be used for Dog Fighting is unfounded.
You had said "Allegedly they can shoot down Russian planes, because their targeting systems have longer range."
My post was to share information to indicate that is not so - F16 does not have longer range.
The rest, you and Tom are in agreement.
You have me confused with someone else. I didn't say that. :)
Sorry I only read part of the first part because it's very very very long, it seems it's about the longer range of planes Russia doesn't really have.
You may be right, but I believe it was Anders Puck Nielsen https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuck that claimed the F16 has better targeting range than the fighter jets Russia actually have.
Targeting range really isn't going to matter as it's doubtful the F-16's primary role will be to engage in air to air combat with Russian fighters. It's much better suited to SEAD / DEAD missions and dropping precision munitions on Russian armor and defended positions.
You are probably right, I reviewed an older video by Puk Nielsen, and he states that the number of planes are far from enough to make air dominance possible.