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this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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Blue states going down, red states going up. The electoral college will fuck us all.
Outside of NYC, NY is a red state. But will 100,000 have that great an influence on the electoral college? It doesn't sound like a lot in a population of 19 million.
There are pockets of NY, outside of NYC, that are blue. The big areas that are red are mostly rural counties. But land doesn't vote, people do, so it doesn't matter if 1,000 people in a huge area vote red when 100,000 people in a small city vote blue.
You're right that NYC helps keep us blue, but they aren't the only ones. In 2020, NY voted for Biden over Trump 60.8% to 37.7%. If we removed NYC's counties, NY would have still voted for Biden, but at a much closer 52.4% to 45.9%.
Not alone. It would have to lose ~3% relative to other states to lose a vote. However, this is just one year and southern states are all gaining people at twice the rate New York is losing them, so theoretically a blue vote could be flipping to a red vote every few years just from the amount of people leaving blue states.
Note that when New York loses Congressional seats, the legislature will presumably gerrymander them such that the Republicans in New York are eliminated, so it shouldn't affect Congress at all.
watches the flood of blue tech people swarming to NC
yeah, I'm not sure the vote will flip that way. It doesn't take much to impact these tiny population red states.
The geographic majority of Washington state is red, but the state is consistently blue. Because land doesn’t vote.
It depends on who is moving. It doesn’t help Dems to run up the score in California and New York, so having people leave might actually help. If some of those educated progressive knowledge workers move to cities in the south, it could make a huge difference.
Nice take.
I saw the map and had the same dismal overall reaction but this is a very valid point!
Unless blue people moving to Texas and Florida flip those states blue, in which case red might be done for good.
Unless it causes red states to flip blue. GA and AZ are examples of that happening.
I hope so, but my experience in Tennessee is that only the conservatives are leaving California and moving here.
Yeah, Tennessee is beyond repair. But other states are close enough to flip.