Tomorrow, reddit will be shutting off 3rd party app access. If the twitter migration is anything to go by, that means that the wave of new users coming in the next few weeks will be much bigger than the wave we saw earlier this month.
Our lead techy admin @supakaity@lemmy.blahaj.zone is also recovering from broken bones and surgery, so she will be slower to respond to issues :)
All of that being said, we're as prepared as we can be. We're currently running our instance on hardware with excess capacity to spare, but who knows if it will be enough.
So, good luck to all of us, and see you on the other side :)
Honestly, it's really hard to say what will happen. I do think there's gonna be an exodus from reddit, however it's hard to say where people will go after that. kbin has been coming up in discussions about reddit alternatives, but same with some of the other federated setups. I've been searching for the past week for something that looks/feels like reddit and this is the closest thing so far. I will say, hopefully since it's going down on a Friday, there might be a lull until Monday before people really start coming in.
I included a link to kbin in my "removed" comments.
I really don't think that many more people are going to switch at this point. Not even sure why so many people think they'd be fine with everything the last two weeks have held, but the actual date of the API change would be the breaking point.
Many simply don't know about it. I was talking to a friend yesterday. I know he uses Reddit as we share memes and stuff. He said that he had no idea that that was happening. I helped him get onto Lemmy.
I mean, I knew it was probably hopeless that there would be any reversal but I stuck around until a day ago. I imagine that 3rd party app users, especially those who know they hate the official app, will be more likely to emigrate now that most apps cut off today. The only reason I used reddit as much as I did was because of Boost. I'm sure there are plenty of others who feel the same about other apps and stuck around until the end.
As for how many... I'm not sure. I saw a lot of people in 3rd party app subs posting about losing access but of those how many will go to Lemmy? We'll see I suppose.