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Biden says that 'if Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running'
(www.nbcnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Dec 2023
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politics
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Historically incumbents have a huge advantage. It would be foolish to throw that away.
Since 1980, 3 of the 7 incumbents have lost.
Yeah, one of them had a hostage crisis plague his presidency, the next got spoiled into total oblivion by a billionaire with some charts, and the last killed over a million Americans by sowing plague misinformation because it made him look bad.
A preponderance of extraordinary circumstances does not establish a trend worth placing bets on.
It's a good thing Biden hasn't had any major crises during his presidency or spoiler campaigns launched, so we can just pretend he's not like the others.
Biden's been resolving crises handed to him by the last guy
Cornell West and RFK ain't Ross Perot
it's a good thing you're smart enough to vote for Biden anyways instead of being a pissant who lets fascism win because he doesn't like one old guy with an ice cream tooth right?
Keep telling yourself everything's going great man. Biden's term has not been a time of slow and steady improvement for many people and not a lot of people are going to think it's all just Trump's fault.
Like I said that’s the only part I can understand, but just because something has been a trend doesn’t mean it will stay one or even that there won’t be exceptions. I see that side of it, but I’m still suspicious he can do it again
It's been more than 100 years since an incumbent didn't run for a second term and their party maintained the presidency (excluding Calvin Coolidge who technically didn't run two terms, but basically did). No one knows what would happen if he were not to run, but history has shown that it'll probably lead to a Republican win. It's easier to predict the outcome having the incumbent run, and probably against the same person last time. Not saying it's the best decision, but it is the most logical one.
That’s pretty much what I’m getting at, I get all the logical reasons but like you said the logical call ain’t always the right one. It’s too late now to second guess but him saying this is a bad idea, it makes it seem like there was a different outcome but it was decided without the will of the people being considered. If he was super popular it would be a different story, but he ain’t
In my entire lifetime no president has ever been super popular. That’s just not a thing any longer.
Which kinda further supports what I’m saying?
Except if your waiting for the guy that’s super popular you’re bus is never coming.
What? No ones waiting for a super popular one, I’m saying if he were in some hypothetical world actually super popular just blindly deciding to run him again would be unquestionable. That there haven’t been any popular presidents recently doesn’t take away from the concept of a president being popular. If anything that means that incumbents should start being reevaluated more
Except it is. They said it's not always the best, which is true, but you can't know in advance what the best choice is. Making illogical choices leads to worse outcomes on average. I really shouldn't have to explain this.