I feel like Unity has just cut off the top of their user funnel with this and guaranteed their slow fall into obsolescence. Large companies using Unity won't move away immediately, neither will many indie devs currently working on projects they are too deep into to pivot. But any new game developer will either go to Unreal or Godot if they want something ready made to ship. Companies will see what all the new talent is using, and will slowly start moving away from wanting to use Unity, since their incoming employees have other skills.

It won't be a fast death. The "leaked" cap at 4% will quiet people down and not make anyone go bankrupt, but I do think they have irreversibly hurt their future with this wild swing.