Feel like the argument is pretty weak "UAF launched a surface-to-air missile around that area, around that time, therefore they were the ones bombing themselves".

I'm not sure what that's suppose to prove. If the city was targeted by an attack, yeah, air defence likely get into action to protect it. Them being active at that precise moment is expected.

I can't find the non-paywalled article, i guess i am missing more conclusive evidences.