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Live updates: Wagner’s Yevgeniy Prigozhin believed to be aboard crashed plane in Russia
(www.washingtonpost.com)
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I think he thought it would succeed and put him in power. When that failed he went mostly silent for a long time, probably trying to figure out how to survive. While it is no surprise to anyone (including him) that he was still a target, I think he made a reasonable (though on hindsight obviously wrong) assumption that things have cleared up enough by now to be worth risking travel.