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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2026
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Unfortunately I think this is it for Iran, they can only do two things now: full scorched earth or capitulate. And it's likely going to be capitulate.
They can't tit for tat after today's attacks. The US went after infrastructure this time. If they close the strait again they're prepared to go to full war.
I think. What the fuck do I know. But would bet within 48 hours:
Edit: I realize now people are reading this as all 3 will happen which is stupid, but doesn't surprise me.
Looks like number 3 is unfolding
Iran can keep the strait closed even if the US goes all out, all flattening Iran would do is ensure the strait stays closed long enough for the oil reserves to run out. The US has to know this. The question is if they're stupid enough to do it anyway.
We are
I don't think so. This is all happening because of whatever leverage Israel has on your leadership. Israel refuses to comply with withdrawing form Lebanon.
The usa refuse to use it's leaverage. Bush senior for example paused a 10 billions aid to israel
George H.W. Bush & his son, curse their names, did not have Polymarket.
Is this what it looks like when you give ChatGPT to a small child?
I'm not a butterfly
The memefied mind in action.
"I write a thousand comments a month"
I don't know what kind of mind that is, but I wouldn't be throwing any shade if I was in your shoes.....
If any of my 1000 comments were as terrible as the ones you leave, I'd retire from the internet.
What other "if" scenarios can we imagine?
Here's an if for ya.
IF anyone was to look at comment histories and compare, you'd see that on the whole my comments are much more highly upvoted.
Now, I don't give a shit, but you should really think about things before you comment. Because it sure seems like your commenting is more or less a finger up your ass thing more than anything else.....
Lmao, thanks for doing the research. I wear the down votes with pride, I've seen what the shitty libs on the lemmyverse up vote.
I like that you're so invested though, keep reading through my comments and maybe you'll learn something.
Ahhhh yes the good old libtard excuse.
"Everyone hates me because I'm hanging out in a place where everyone hates me, but I'm actually super cool"
Lol..... what does it feel like to be a caricature without realizing you're a caricature?
Lol, yeah a socialist who prefers China over American bloodshed and death, who critically supports Iran and Russia is definitely a libtard, ya got me!
So in your mind down votes mean your a dumbfuck, and yet you have copious down votes on this very post! Interesting.
Hoo boy. I wasn't calling you a libtard. I was talking about you screeching at "liberals"
Hoo boy, you're not a very good communicator then, are you?
imagine being this detached from reality y'all
Joke of the century
All three?
Dayam, well I won't fight you cause I'm no position to claim I know enough.....but I'm curious what you think? Just more tit for tat/straits open/straits closed/etc?
I expect return of the full scale war for a short period and then return to negociation because the usa will fail again.,The usa tried everything last time. It did hit infrastructures. The irgc will not surrender that for sure. They still have the control. They still have most of their missiles most of their drones to continue the closure of the straight . Iran can also closure beb el mendeb
why would they capitulate?
The US can flatten their infrastructure at will. They can only withstand so much of that before the calculus they've been working under changes.
Iran was benefitting from the war for a large part of it. No longer.
Remember how NAZI Germany "flattenned" the infrastructure of the Brits, literally mass bombing British cities?
Remember who ultimatelly won?
Historically a foreign enemy bombing civilians generally achieves the very opposite of compliance - it strengthens rather than weakens their resolve.
Good lord, ok sure let's see who's right in the end.
Do you not remember the dozen or so destroyed us military aircraft??
Did I say Iran couldn't do any damage?
My whole point is the tit for tat can't go any longer. And I've been vindicated (a bit) so far in that my 3rd scenario is starting to play out. Full mobilizing of the IRGC, scatter orders. US strikes are heavier and more frequent.
The strait cannot be fully closed again/ much longer without serious physical shortages starting to appear. Therefore Iran either has to capitulate or go over the top and go for max pain.
Guess we'll find out if your nostradumbass 48 hours predictions come true or not. See you then!
So it was a "one of these things is bound to happen" list, not a "these are all going to happen" list.
And #3 is absolutely panning out so far. We will see if it keeps up. But curious how you are so confident in your criticism when it's literally happening......
Or were you like most others thinking I was predicting all three things would happen, which is absolutely stupid because they can't by definition all happen.
Number 3 isn't a prediction if it's already happening, I thought that that would be obvious. The other 2 points are nonsensical. And my original comment was making fun of your statement that the US can flatten Iran at will.
Uhhhh it wasn't happening when I made the prediction smart guy ๐
9 hours ago? It absolutely was lol. Where do you get your news? Sounds like they're olds by the time you get em lol.
Also I think there's some juice to the US ground invasion prediction but I don't think it's going to go badly for Iran lol.
21 hours....9 was the edit.
Although I suppose you have to take my word on that since I don't think you can see edit histories.
But yeah.
I dunno if there is either, I was a lurker for a long time and am relatively new to commenting.
If true, good call lol
The fact that you considered the option 1 possible make it one of the stupiest comment I ever read here
Yet option 3 was an accurate prediction ๐ค๐ค๐ค
And I hope you're ESL cause otherwise that's a hell of an ironic sentence. BUT I'll use my terrible predictive abilities and bet that you are ESL. Which probably makes you smarter than me just by definition.
You call that a prediction?
Oui.
Everybody knew that iran would close the straight in case of a big escalation like this one.
Yet my prediction was not simply that they would closec the strait. Of course everyone knew that.
how so? iran can rebuild infrastructure, and also destroy theirs.
the us can't wrangle back control of the strait which is an important part of fueling the petrodollar. if the rumors are correct, both their oil and missile reserves are dwindling.
pride precedes the fall.
Why? Dragging this out only helps Iran. Every day the US oil reserves fall further, and Iran makes more missiles and drones and tunnels, and the Gulf States get angrier with Trump for messing up their economies.
Iran doesn't even have to do tit-for-tat attacks or stop every single tanker. They just have to hit enough ships that no one wants to risk crossing without their permission, and prevent the US from returning to and repairing its bases. Both of which they have shown themselves capable of doing.