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this post was submitted on 19 May 2026
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How else are they going to ban prediction markets if people can pretend they aren't in Minnesota?
VPNs have many legitimate use cases though, unlike prediction markets.
I think the ban is on using VPNs to circumvent the prediction market prohibition, not on using VPNs whatsoever.
This is how I read it.
I would think VPN usage in this case could be proven without the VPN giving anything up, depending on what the poly market logs. If they log that a bet occured with X person at Y time from an IP that's from another state or known to be a VPN IP address... And all proof shows they were 100% at home in MN. Then a case could be made they used a VPN to trick the poly market into accepting the bet. Then, boom, another charge added on.
Or if the poly market itself teaches people how to vpn to get around the ban... they would see more charges.
Trace the financial transactions, which can't fully be hidden by a VPN.
Sure, a Minnesota resident could use a VPN to go to a prediction market gambling site ... but when they pay money to make their bet or receive money from a bet that pays out, those financial transactions should be traceable to and from Minnesota.
Don't they often take crypto currency though?
I'll start off by saying I'm not sure if prediction markets take crypto or not. However, even if they did, there's not really any crypto brokers that don't follow KYC (know your customer) policies. It would require a subpoena to get the information about a specific customer, but the ledger is public, so you can see everyone's transactions.
Some do, sure, and those will probably remain as ways to avoid the law. Though, at least in theory, it will still be illegal and people doing it could at least in theory be caught and prosecuted for it.
Shutting down the main ones, while leaving crypto-based ones as a legally risky alternative will still greatly hamper and slow down these prediction markets' business in Minnesota.
Kalshi and Polymarket split the market almost 50/50. Kalshi has KYC and legally serves US markets and Polymarket doesn't and uses crypto for their US customers.
Its literally around half the market, not some fringe thing.