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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation's first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, the most far-reaching crackdown on massively popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket.

It comes as states confront a growing standoff with the Trump administration over how to regulate the industry, which allows people to bet on virtually anything.

The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which it defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on a future outcome, like sports, elections, weather, live entertainment, someone's word choice and world affairs.

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in August.

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[-] SinAdjetivos@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

The amount of people who can't read past the headline and are missing that this is about banning VPNs and garnering public support for it is honestly horrifying.

[-] zarkanian@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago

Wait, so you read this

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

and thought that it meant

Minnesota is banning VPNs, too.

Like, that would be a headline on its own. But it isn't.

[-] winkerjadams@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 22 hours ago

Doesn't sound very private if they know what I'm doing and can ban it...

[-] zarkanian@sh.itjust.works 1 points 18 hours ago

How is this law going to be implemented?

[-] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 155 points 2 days ago

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks ...

So they quietly just slipped a blanket VPN ban in there, too? Would be interested to read more about that part ...

[-] Doomsider@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

"This section is effective August 1, 2026. Sec. 3. [609.7615] PREDICTION MARKETS. (a) As used in this section, the following terms have the meanings given. (b) "Athletic event" means a sports game, match, or activity, or series of games, matches, activities, or tournaments involving the physical proficiency of one or more players or participants. Athletic event includes horse racing as defined in section 240.01, subdivision 8. (c) "Esports event" means a competition between individuals or teams using video games in a game, match, contest, or series of games, matches, or contests or a tournament, or by a person or team against a specified measure of performance which is hosted at a physical location or online. (d) "Game of skill" means a game, match, or tournament, or a series of games, matches, and tournaments involving the dexterity or mental skill of one or more players or participants. Game of skill includes an esports event. (e) "Prediction market" means a system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract, including but not limited to: (1) an athletic event or game of skill, or portions thereof or individual performance statistics therein; (2) any game played with cards, dice, equipment, or any mechanical or electronic device or machine; (3) war, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises, or the ancillary effects thereof; (4) any event or events happening to a natural person or group of people; (5) a federal, state, or local election, or the actions or conduct of the federal, state, or local government and the government's agencies, employees, and officers; (6) legal actions, including but not limited to a civil or criminal suit, grand jury action, jury trial, settlement, plea, or conviction; (7) the death, assassination, or attempted killing of a person or group of persons, or mass casualty events; (8) short-term weather events or conditions; (9) events in popular culture, including but not limited to awards and the date a piece of entertainment will be released; and (10) whether a person will make a particular statement. (f) "Wager" means a contract, including a prediction market contract, whereby the parties to the contract agree to a gain or loss by one to the other of money, property, or benefit. Subd. 2. Prediction markets; hosting prohibited. A person is guilty of a felony if the person, for consideration and as part of a business: (1) creates a prediction market; (2) operates, manages, or controls a platform or system intending that consumers will use the platform or system to make wagers in a prediction market; (3) intentionally facilitates the operation of a prediction market by: (i) identifying or listing events knowing the events will be used by consumers to make wagers; (ii) accepting, holding, or directing the disposition of money or other things of value for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made by consumers; (iii) determining, administering, or enforcing the terms, pricing, or settlement of wagers made by consumers; (iv) regularly or continuously acting as a counterparty to wagers made by consumers by entering into a wager, offering to enter into a wager, or taking a temporary position in a wager that may be replaced by a different consumer; or (v) setting or adjusting the prices, odds, or terms that apply to wagers entered into by consumers;

(4) provides data, information, or verification services, including the provision of event outcomes, directly to a prediction market knowing that the data, information, or verification services will be used to allow consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made by consumers in violation of this section; or (5) provides supportive services to a prediction market or consumer knowing that the services will be used to identify a consumer's location, transfer money, or make or process payments for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made by consumers in violation of this section.

Subd. 3. Prediction markets; advertising prohibited. Whoever advertises or markets financial or technological products that promote transactions prohibited under this section is guilty of a felony. Subd. 4. Exceptions. Subdivision 2 does not apply to: (1) activities that are not bets under section 609.75, subdivision 3; and (2) contracts authorized and regulated under chapters 59A to 79A."

The way I read it is a VPN provider should block users in this state from connecting to prediction betting sites to be safe.

[-] kamenlady@lemmy.world 75 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

Seems to be the intention.

They should go further and ban people from leaving the state, since that could also be used to circumvent the ban.

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 day ago

Luckily due to the United States Constitution, the states can't tell you where you can and cannot go. Obviously with the police they can do whatever the fuck they want but officially we can go over we want.

[-] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago

I mean you could make the argument that the commerce clause tells the state they can't ban VPNs. Ultimately it will be up to the SC to dictate the laws as they have been lately.

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago

You know what, you're right one could make the argument that states don't even have the authority to ban vpns.

[-] Doomsider@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

They can totally ban VPNs in the state. They can't ban VPNs out of the state.

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 1 points 13 hours ago

It's kind of seems like that would be a state regulating interstate commerce. And international Commerce which is exclusively the Federal prerogative.

[-] Doomsider@lemmy.world 2 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

If they tried to ban a VPN outside of the state I would agree with you. Also, the way the law is written you have to know that is what the service is being used for to be criminally liable.

I will admit this could cause a chilling situation where VPNs voluntarily block these sites when a user can be determined to be from this state. I think that is their intention though.

[-] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 8 points 2 days ago

These people have bank accounts. What not just pass a law saying banks can’t take payments from these sites instead of banning VPNs?

[-] Dultas@lemmy.world 7 points 1 day ago

Because banks have a better lobby and pay better.

[-] half_built_pyramids@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago

Prior to New Jersey amending their state constitution to allow online sports betting in 2011, and mostly leading to the opening of online gambling we're experiencing now, enforcement was usually taken against the "casinos" rather than the handlers. Back then it was CEOs of the betting companies getting caught on their flight layovers and charged with the illegal gambling stuff.

Doubt the intention is to enforce against the gamblers for the reasons already implied here, like the difficulty of tracking and enforcing vpn monitoring.

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[-] lIlIlIlIlIlIl@lemmy.world 23 points 2 days ago

Hey what the fuck, good eye

[-] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 17 points 2 days ago

Here is the relevant text of the signed bill SF4760, make your judgement as you will:

81.23 Subd. 2. Prediction markets; hosting prohibited. A person is guilty of a felony if the 81.24 person, for consideration and as part of a business

...

82.14 (5) provides supportive services to a prediction market or consumer knowing that the 82.15 services will be used to identify a consumer's location, transfer money, or make or process 82.16 payments for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made 82.17 by consumers in violation of this section.

[-] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 16 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

So they'd have to prove that the VPN provider somehow knew the user's intention? It will they just steamroll over the facts and claim that any provider should assume that?

[-] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 23 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Good questions. At a minimum any VPN marketing in MN would need to tiptoe around claims that you can watch region locked content as if you were there.

Personally, I think VPNs that don’t receive or keep customers' info and logs could have a credible argument that they don't know whether their customers use it for prediction markets or not.

[-] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 14 points 2 days ago

Cue laws that VPNs monitor their clients' traffic

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[-] 4grams@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

God I love my state sometimes.

[-] TheJesusaurus@piefed.ca 69 points 2 days ago

Just FYI, sufficiently liquid prediction markets are also assassin markets by their nature.

It's a really easy way to facilitate payments for killings by "predicting" that someone will be dead by a certain date, and making a big bet against it

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

That isn't really a new thing entirely, companies have our entire lives been able to take out life insurance on their employees without them knowing it. Which you know...

[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 8 points 1 day ago

This was reported, so I looked it up. Apparently, it's true. I also think it's your opinion that corporations might use for their own financial gain, so I won't remove it.

Corporate ownership of life insurance (COLI), or corporate-owned life insurance, refers to insurance policies taken out by companies on their employees, typically senior-level executives.

The company is responsible for making the premium payments, and if the person dies, the company, not the insured person's family or other heirs, receives the death benefit. Such policies came to be called "dead peasant insurance" after some companies purchased life insurance on low-level workers without their knowledge.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/corporate-ownership-of-life-insurance.asp

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 5 points 1 day ago

Oh right the dead peasants' insurance thing this is like well after the fact, in like the 00s by walmart.

I guess I should have just looked it all up how hard could have been.

From what I understand they would take them out on technical employees fairly often as well, like scientists types that could not be easily replaced. But who knows what dirty dealings have gone on.

[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago

Is that why they hire elderly people as greeters? Wow, they're pure evil.

[-] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago

Huh, I wonder if there's a way we could subpoena the books of the life insurance companies they deal with. Or somehow obtain that information by whatever means.

Walmart was a very bad company, they still are but I think they were one of the first retail Giants to become totally morally bankrupt.

[-] stringere@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago

If a Walmart employee dies on Walmart property the family gets a $1,000,000 payout. Source: am spouse of Walmart manager. This applies to all employees as far as I know.

[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

What does Walmart get if you die* on or off the property?

[-] stringere@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago

That I do not know. If they get anything, it isn't handled at the store level.

[-] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 day ago

His opinion? Walmart was notorious for taking out life insurance policies on its rank and file workers. It happened for decades, there were even lawsuits, settlements, the whole 9 yards...

[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago

This is the first I'm hearing anything about it. I meant it as a good thing, so he doesn't have to provide proof and all that.

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[-] tacosanonymous@mander.xyz 12 points 2 days ago

It’s why we aren’t allowed to do “dead pools.”

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[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 9 points 2 days ago
[-] TheJesusaurus@piefed.ca 38 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Hey, I bet you a million dollars a guy I don't like will still be alive tomorrow.

If you take that bet. You have a significant financial interest in ensuring that guy I don't like isn't still alive tomorrow

[-] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I know everyone else is pretending that they understood your original comment, but I actually really appreciate how much you clear it up with this response.

Like there is no downside for the person making the bet, they actually accrue interest until it happens if there is any market volume on the bet.

[-] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 days ago

I get what you were saying, I just have never heard of this happening. Are there court cases or articles on it?

[-] gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world 15 points 2 days ago

No confirmed cases, but sci fi novels and commentators have been talking about it since the 90s - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

[-] luciferofastora@feddit.org 3 points 1 day ago

We are proud to announce that we have created the Torment Nexus from the famous SciFi show "Don't create the Torment Nexus"!

[-] Holytimes@sh.itjust.works 4 points 2 days ago

No idea about court cases but my great grandfather had stories of soilders betting on which commanding officer would be killed next by his own men. He was in the German military. My grandfather had similar stories from Vietnam.

Dead pools or how ever you call them are a decently well known concept.

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[-] frustrated_phagocytosis@fedia.io 23 points 2 days ago

Every day I regret leaving Minnesota for Texas, they keep doing what we need to do here and the damn state regime stomps down any progressive or practical solutions the blue cities try. I vote angry in every election.

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this post was submitted on 19 May 2026
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