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Taiwan to Trump: We are sovereign and independent
(www.politico.eu)
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this post was submitted on 16 May 2026
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The 2027 date comes from a report to congress in 2021 so it's not like it's always been a year away. It was also an estimate for the timescale for China to build up the military capacity to be able to annex Taiwan, AFAIK there's never been an official analysis that they actually would pull the trigger on an invasion on that timescale or any other.
The issue is that if the analysis is correct and if they think whoever comes after Trump would be more likely to defend Taiwan than Trump is then there's an incentive to go while Trump is still president which pretty much would mean striking as soon as they had the capability, I.e. in 2027.
They already have the capability, Iran is proof of that. The 2027 number is simply to justify the next military budget, which at this point has little influence on the future of Taiwan.
In what way is Iran proof of China's ability to conduct an amphibious invasion?
I see how i could have been more explicit. Iran is evidence that the USA can't defend Taiwan in a drawn out war if China decided to invade