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this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2026
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For a more recent data point, how about NASA's safety requirements for SpaceX manned flights, circa 2020?
Would you get in a car if you had a 1 in 270 chance of dying during each trip? Those aren't great odds for surviving a year's worth of daily commutes.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/05/22/nasa-review-clears-spacex-crew-capsule-for-first-astronaut-mission/
the difference is i doubt anyone will ever fly more than a few dozen trips in the rocket if that
For the sake of argument, let's use your numbers and say an average astronaut ends up taking a dozen flights on rockets designed to NASA's 1-in-270 "loss of crew" standard. If that probability holds, then we would expect 4.4% of all astronauts flying in modern rockets to be in a fatal accident during their 12-mission career.
For comparison, lifetime driving fatality risk for American drivers is right around 1%.