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Someone's cutting onions
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this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2026
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For the sake of argument, let's use your numbers and say an average astronaut ends up taking a dozen flights on rockets designed to NASA's 1-in-270 "loss of crew" standard. If that probability holds, then we would expect 4.4% of all astronauts flying in modern rockets to be in a fatal accident during their 12-mission career.
For comparison, lifetime driving fatality risk for American drivers is right around 1%.