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A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines
(words.filippo.io)
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First, I personally don't yet believe in the cryptographic security of LWE on lattices. I agree that it sure looks hard, but we don't have a solid proof. But also, I don't believe that we've found any provably one-way functions in the classical regime either. So I agree with you from different premises.
Unlucky 10,000: Shor's algorithm speeds up any discrete logarithm. It actually speeds up the abelian HSP. This does give us a theoretical reason to expect that LWE on lattices won't fall to Shor's approach, as the underlying groups are non-abelian. It does make me sad for elliptic curves, though; they're so elegant and the keys are so small.
Not sure what you think my "different premises" are? Also I obviously already know that Shor's algorithm solves the discrete log problem. I don't know why you phrased your comment assuming I'm an idiot.