the center may be more transphobic than you think, he isn't using right wing dog or wolf whistles like Elon and Trump, he's mostly taking an anti-trans stance which might be somewhat popular and might be one of those dividing issues that keep otherwise "centrists" from voting for a Democrat (though mostly what polling indicates is voters don't care about the trans issue, because the GOP is flaming a moral panic about it, that is what remains salient for Dems of what the "other side" cares about).