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President Zelenskyy congratulated Vasyl Malyuk, Head of the SSU, on the "absolutely brilliant result" of Operation 'Spiderweb'. (sopuli.xyz)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by LaFinlandia@sopuli.xyz to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14440

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[-] Skua@kbin.earth 54 points 1 month ago

They're saying they got a Beriev A-50 AEW&C plane too. There were only eight of those when the war started, and Ukraine has already taken a few out

[-] Carmakazi@lemmy.world 39 points 1 month ago

Just about every facet of their Soviet military inheritance has been seriously diminished or depleted at this point, with the exception of their nuclear warheads. I can't see them ever recovering from this war.

[-] IphtashuFitz@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago

There’s a lot of speculation that their nuclear capabilities are severely diminished as well, but I think it’s all just speculation.

For example, any weapons based on tritium have to be replenished fairly often since tritium has a shelf life of only 12 years.

Then there are the explosives used to initiate the nuclear reaction. The nuclear material is surrounded by a high explosive like RDX, which compresses the nuclear material into a critical mass, triggering the nuclear reaction. But explosives like RDX also have a short shelf life measured in a handful of years.

So maintaining nuclear weapons is a time consuming and complex process. Given the poor economy of Russia, the known corruption at all levels of the military, the fact that the Russian army has had to round up weapons, vehicles, etc. that are 50+ years old to fight Ukraine, etc. it makes people wonder if they still have the ability to maintain their nuclear weapons.

[-] slaacaa@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I was also thinking about this around the beginning of the war. It is very logical that for the reasons you explain, their nuclear capabilities are not as great as the world thinks. After the shitshow we have seen, it’s obvious that corruption and incompetence wouldn’t allow for this level of delicate nuclear maintenance on a large scale. I heard something like the US spending on nuclear arsenal upkeep is comparable to the Russian pre-war military budget.

However, according to the START treaty (iirk), US and Russia regularly checked each other’s nuclear arsenals (I assume until the start of the war), to confirm the numbers and status. Based on those inspections, the Russians seem to be still cooking. I don’t know how deep these inspections go, maybe it’s easy to put on a show. Also, I think Putin knows that MAD is the only reason he and his country still exists, so maybe they have at least a few dozens warheads in good condition, personally managed and checked by a trusted associate of his.