I've been beating this drum for like 4~5y but: I don't think the tech itself is going anywhere. published, opensourced, etc etc - the bell can't be unrung, the horses have departed the stable

but

I do also argue that an extremely large amount of wind in the sails right now is because of the constellation of VC/hype//etc shit

can't put a hard number on this, but .... I kind see a very massive reduction; in scope, in competence, in relevance. so much of this shit (esp. the "but my opensource model is great!" flavour) is so fucking reliant on "oh yeah this other entity had a couple fuckpiles of cash with which to train", and once that (structurally) evaporates...