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this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
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Good news, or bad news depending on how self reliant your government is. China is doing exactly what it promised it would do if they were the sole super power. Which is we will not militarily interfere with your nation no matter the situation.
So if your like Thailand, or Brazil, wonderful. You get to keep all your freedom and autonomy and China will happily trade with you.
If your Myanmar or Sudan, well good luck revolutionaries. There's no America to stand in your way of overtaking your government. If your the governments of these nations...
What if you're Taiwan...
Or Vietnam or Philippines or Malaysia
This again? Taiwan isn't a recognized country. So they would not be interfering with a nation. IF you disagree with that, petition your own country to recognize Taiwan. The funniest thing is I'm Taiwanese and frankly the Taiwanese don't want independence at this point. That's why the Taiwanese congress is majority status quo and about 50/50 on independence and actually returning to China. The reason president Lai won is because the split is so strong that a 40% vote for Lai got him the win. A few more from the people who wanted status quo voted for him instead of Hou at 34%. Yet if you saw what congress did immediately after, which is handcuff him from ever declaring independence, you'll know the will of the Taiwanese.
So all that is to say, no China won't be attacking Taiwan either. That's just nonsense noise from the west, which frankly I as a Taiwanese person is absolutely sick of. The agreement is simple, Taiwan doesn't declare independence and China will at most saber rattle.
*Edit: Oh and what's not reported is that right after Congress did that, China started a charm offensive. Inviting the former head of the KMT to China and undoing travel restrictions for Taiwanese citizens. So yeah, the war is only in your head, not ours.
Edit 2:. Loving. The down votes for a Taiwanese person explaining to a westerner what our actual opinions are. Why don't you all westsplain to me how I should feel.
Still.
Still what? I've already explained China isn't attacking. And if you would like Taiwan to be independent petition your own government.
That's a bad take. Independence should be in the view of the people living there. I'm not going to gauge if Taiwan is a country based on if I can convince the US to recognize them, that's nonsense garbage logic
Is it? So you're for the independence of Barcelona? Hawaii? Ireland? Falken Islands? When do they get to choose?
yes
So you think that we should have split off America during the Jan 6th riots? At what point is a country a country and needs to defend it's existence and when is it not?
i can only hope for the collapse of the state, but in general i wish that upon every state that has so failed its people
So anarchy? Every time anarchy happens dictatorships follow. If the country is lucky, they'll eventually have a representative government. You can look at the history of Israeli Kibbutz to see how anarchy and communism fails. The problem with your idealism, which frankly if I could have my perfect world wouldn't look all that different, is that it's impossible. It's been tried over and over to various levels of failure.
All I'm doing is trying to explain the situation, I'm not trying to give a right or wrong to it. YOU are assuming I am.
I haven't said anything of the sort and i was mostly prodding you for more information so that i could internalize your statements as a useful source
Well ask away. I'm mostly here to try to get westerners to realize that their black and white view of the world is simply wrong or impossible.
could you provide some evidence you're Taiwanese in Taiwan?
I already did, look through my comments.
then you are the only Chinese person I've ever heard say "Hans Chinese"
Wait, when did I say I'm Chinese?
you said you're Taiwanese above, do you consider yourself Taiwanese and not Chinese?
That's correct. Like I said, westerners have no understanding of what the Taiwanese people want or think. And instead of understanding, they make grand statements about what we want without our input. Again, if you look at the voting, we voted heavily in favor of status quo, which is what I want. If you look at polls, Taiwanese people consider themselves Taiwanese. It's confusing to people like you because you want it to be black and white, we are fine with shades of gray. Mostly though, I want people to stop talking for us.
that's legit, as an anarchist i want peoples to be able to speak for themselves. I'm not finding referendums about independence, though, just polling from the NSC / ECCU that suggests a split between maintaining status quo and gradually moving towards independence
I mean if you ask Taiwanese people in the very long run would it be nice if Taiwan is independent I would argue probably 70% would agree with that. But we're fine with that not happening for hundreds of years if so be it. We're mostly fine with the situation the way it is right now. Which is exactly why I dislike people bringing up Taiwan whenever they talk about China. First it's always about war, second it's always about us wanting an independence we're not actually thinking about within our lifetimes. Taiwan only becomes a hot zone IF the US makes it a hot zone. China has stated they have no plans to take Taiwan by force unless necessary and will prepare a strong enough military by 2027 to fight the US. The US has taken that to mean China will invade in 2027. What China is really saying is we're going to be so strong that Taiwan would want to return. I don't think that's true. Most Taiwanese people do not want to return. However, if USA keeps doing what it's doing, Taiwan may U-turn. There's a lot of unhappiness right now about America. BUT that's also why we like the status quo. We see the winds changing. We want the best opportunities for ourselves regardless of who leads the world.
How do you feel about the military exercises China takes near Taiwan?
I'd also like to hear your perspective on US involvement in the region, such as military bases and weapons aid.
It's important to understand who the military exercises are aimed at. It's aimed at USA, every Taiwanese person knows this. Which is why we literally have people come out and take pictures of the weapons going off instead of hiding or fearing anything. It's fine, everyone seems to like firing off their weapons near our island at this point. It's not like USA, Australia, Japan, Russia, North Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, England, France, India I could go on, but they're all firing weapons. This is actually why China keeps increasing the size of the exercises. They're trying to show no matter how many people are there, they'll have the force to handle it (they don't, that's what 2027 is about). Actually MORE IMPORTANTLY China doesn't have the soldiers to actually fight the war. If you ever wondered how China's military budget is so tiny compared to USA's and yet has so much equipment, it's because they don't actually train their soldiers. It's also how we know China is using the equipment for fear factor and not an actual invasion. They would need to massively expand their military size and training. China seems big with 2 million active soldiers, but almost all of those soldiers are trained for humanitarian aid. AND it's not even enough to take on USA alone if USA activates their reserves let alone their allies (which is probably going away now). Plus, it's almost all army grunts who are tasked with cleaning up city streets like they did in HK during the riots. They're desperately short on pilots. So China doesn't have a real fighting force, and the force they do have is incredibly corrupt, which is what all the firings of the heads of departments is about. China knows this, they also know the only thing they can really do is saber rattle, because all their soldiers are spoiled brats who couldn't go to a good school.
As to your second question I have no real answer. If you go all the way back to my original post this is what I was talking about. IF China is sole hegemony, China has a strong policy of never sending their soldiers to do anything anywhere ever, unless Taiwan declares independence. Note, the whole Philippines thing isn't against Chinese military but their coast guards. They're trained to use water cannons not weapons.
So what happens? Well this is the scary part, if USA actually retreats, there's nothing holding the nations together who are upset at their governments. We're going to see massive genocides across the world.
On the other hand, to your ideal, who is USA to tell other nations to obey in the first place? All I know is that if China wins completely, the world will be more chaotic, at least for a while.
*Edit: Fun fact. In case you're wondering why I'm so fluent in English it's because I went to High School and College in the US, like most of my friends and family. I find it horrifyingly disappointing that the US is doing what it's doing since I used to very much consider it a second home. But alas, the world is never really what we want is it?
Thanks for sharing your perspective. I'm not sure which media sources are credible on the situation so I haven't looked into it much.
It's hard to predict how the US will respond globally as this empire free falls. Usually empires lash out violently as they wane, and with military bases around the world and an incompetent fascist in charge, I fear the US will too. Those military bases could quickly become considered an occupation by the many home countries if relations sour.
Multi-polar organizations like BRICS and regional multi-national organizations give me hope that China would not be a dominant force like the US is and European empires were. But only time will tell.
I do believe internationalism will be critical for global solidarity and a multi-polar world. If global capitalism is truly coming to a violent end in the near future, I can only hope that a socialist mode of production and mutualism will gain prominence in it's place.
Whatever happens, I wish you and the Taiwanese people peace, whichever way they choose to go with, if the status quo becomes no longer an option
I mean China has stated over and over and responded over and over in a way that states China would not willingly become a dominant force. China's whole thing is they only care about their country and their people and what ever happens in the world it's not their business.
But here's some historical examples for what I'm talking about.
Ukraine Russian war. Yes, China sells drone parts and machinery to Russia. That's constantly talked about as if this is absolute proof that China is supporting Russia's war against Ukraine. However, Ukraine is just as dependent on these parts and machinery as Russia is. So by that logic, China is supporting Ukraine in the war.
Myanmar. Is currently in a massive civil war. Myanmar is completely under China's sphere of influence to the point where no external actor is willing to interfere. Yet China is willing to just let the people do whatever they feel is right. Even though it's literally causing a genocide in the nation.
Sudan. Basically the same as Myanmar. Though an interesting side story to this is Sudan had Chinese tanks that South Sudan did not. Those tanks absolutely crushed the T-72 tanks that South Sudan has. Though that kind of went sideways because South Sudan simply avoided the tanks and attacked in other areas. But if anyone is wondering, yes China's military equipment far out paces Russia.
Vietnam. After the Sino-Vietnam war, China controlled about 20% of Vietnam. They declared victory and then told the Vietnam government that they respect their sovereignty and just simply left. It was the last war that China ever committed itself to.
Ultimately, China's whole rise to power is one of completely unwillingness to get involved in anything. It's one of the reasons no one respects China as a super power. However, with USA doing what it's doing, it by default goes to China. I don't know what it means ultimately, but at least for the near future, China is going to allow insane genocide in so much of the world. Something that USA would have gone to war over. They won't be dominant, but are you sure that's what you want?
Yeah, from my understanding China is only interested in it's own self growth. While the Belt and Road initiative has certainly been beneficial for the global south, especially when compared to Neo-colonialism via the IMF and World Bank, it's still ultimately for China's sake. They have no interest in promoting Chinese style Communism to other countries, at least currently. Whether that will change or not I don't know. Their current military aid towards the perpetuators of genocide in those conflicts is absolutely unacceptable.
What I want is an international organization where everyone has a vote and no one has a veto, where international law can actually be implemented instead of ignored. Where human rights violations documented by Amnesty International, HRW, Euro-Med Monitor, ect will be materially addressed by the global community regardless of who's committing the violations. To that end, I oppose all Imperialism, Colonialism, and Neo-colonialism.
I mean China sells to both sides. They don't really give aid in the traditional way. It's just about money. But yeah, it's pretty messed up just in a completely different way than what the west does.
And I agree with your ideals, but sadly that's definitely not happening in our lifetimes.
This is exactly what happens on every .ml or hexbear discussion when someone mentions Ukraine, BTW.
Of course.
The one thing I liked about Connect better than Voyager. The instance blocking on Connect worked. A whole lot didn't, but that did.
I don't think user comments are typically blocked, just communities. Which is fine with me, I don't have a problem with every single user on instances I have blocked.
In Connect it would auto hide posts made by someone in a blocked community. They'd all be there, but you'd have to elect to have it shown to see it.
If they keep that promise, that's mostly good news IMO. Interference doesn't always go so well.
I think Afghanistan is a good example, we were there for 20 years, trying to establish democracy. And now they are right back where they were 20 years ago.
We can't keep policing such countries indefinitely. This is a link of our (Denmark) losses, as a small country that helped the UN effort.
https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danske_tab_i_Afghanistan_siden_2002
It's horrible how they treat their own population, but we can't control the entire Muslim world. And all Muslim dominated countries are horrible AFAIK. So I'm good with staying out, as long as they don't create trouble here. Problem is that they do, sometimes for stupid religious reasons.
Of course they will. They're winning. China is patient if anything. That's why even Rubio said they have a 10,000 year plan to take over America. Which is absurd since USA didn't exist then, but that's besides the point. What he's right about is China will wait.
To establish democracy? Are you joking?
That's State Department propaganda that's been completely debunked for a while. The aims of US foreign policy on Afghanistan were lucrative financial exploitation and destabilizing the region.
The U.S. occupation of Afghanistan was colonialism that prevented Afghan self-determination
Timeline: How September 11, 2001 led to US’s longest war
More sources
What? I’m guessing Taiwan isn’t a real country. People in Hong Kong didn’t have right to self determination.
The bulletts in fired on the Indian border were fake news?
I'm Taiwanese, I know much better what the Taiwanese want than you do. Go through these posts if you want to know my opinion, as well as you'll see my passport.
As to the other stuff, bullets were not fired at India. They don't even patrol with guns. Please read the news before making stuff up.