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this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2025
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I don't really see it as a preference issue. Greens are likely to lose their Queensland seats at the coming election, but they have a good chance of winning Melbourne Ports, Cooper and Wills in Victoria. Four seats is a lot of bargaining power if both parties fall short of a majority.
My hope is actually that the Liberals, in those three seats, preference Greens over Labor to try and pull some seats away from them. Their preferences alone would handily get Greens over the line.
Just about every election (well, not at the moment in WA ha!) comes down to preferences.
See? You actually agree that preferences make a big difference. The issue is that the Liberal party would prefer to see a Labor candidate in a seat over a Green party member. So, if they saw a possibility that the Greens might take a seat, they wouldn't give Green their preferences.
The biggest problem I see for the Greens is that Labor has no incentive to actually court Green preferences. They assume Greens will always preference them over Liberal, because they always have. They can take those preferences for granted.
Y'all know the voter sets the preferences on their ballet, not the party right?
Of course I do. 😀
But the parties give out those "how to vote" cards at every ballot point for a reason: most voters use them. Which means that the party does set the preferences.
You still changed the topics from seats won and forming a minority government, to preferences and whether Greens vote total will help Labor win the election. It's not a gotcha that I mentioned preferences when you are the one that brought it up ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is completely irrelevant in seats where the two party preferred comes down to Greens vs Labor. Which is what I was talking about.
That's only a scenario that plays out in a few Melbourne seats. It isn't a thing for most of the nation. So, I didn't consider that. Sorry.