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this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2025
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Putin has been speaking with Trump on phone for over an hour. I believe 2 hours now. I wonder if Putin got past talking about the Kievan Rus’ and gotten to the Golden Horde yet?
I hope the arrangement that Putin and Trump get to is this (many of you will disagree) but Putin’s current offer is Ukraine recognizes of Russia’s annexation of the four provinces that Russia controls or partially controls.
Here's an idea: Putin can fight Ukrainians and NATO (minus the US) if he doesn't pull out of all occupied parts of Ukraine and pay massive compensation. And then the Russian people can decide whether Putin leaves office like Qaddafi, like Ceausecu or like Mussolini.
Edit: A traditional defenestration would be fine too.
European countries don’t even want to send soldiers in Ukraine after the ceasefire without US involvement, and you think they will send soldiers to fight in the front lines without the US? Come on…
The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a few weeks before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.
With most of Russian Armed Forces not even being in Ukraine, as majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia, I think this can only backfire.
Even the Americans are warning against underestimating Russia.
What should happen being realistic is: either putin gets no territory but ukraine gets no security (no nato nor EU nor mutual defence with EU nations) or ukraine gets security (NATO, EU or mutual defence with EU nations) but Russia gains all territory it currently occupies
The best offer Ukraine ever got was Putin's 2022 offer. Had Ukraine accepted Putin’s offer in 2022. Ukraine would have kept all of its land with even the status of Crimea being negotiable after 10-15 years.
Putin’s peace treaty would have the US and the UK, as guarantors, who were obliged to assist Ukraine in case of aggression against it.
Although Russia also was to be a guarantor and could veto assistance but I find it likely that Russia was willing to drop this (they were dropping a lot of conditions) as it would have provided Putin with a good enough victory to show off at home.
Ukraine wouldn’t be allowed to join NATO and they wouldn’t be allowed to host foreign troops inside their country and had to pay reparations and downsize its military.
Ukraine would however be allowed to join EU had they took this offer.
Similar to your 1st idea.