Putin begging to be invited / offering to western pro-european Ukraine to protect them from Poland instead of the usual direct NATO/Poland threatening was not in my bingo card...
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I hope that's a typo and you meant 2022. If that pole had that much insight into the invasion before it happened you need to get him on the line because he's a goddamn wizard and I have some unrelated questions.
I mean it was the beginning of the build-up of the russians and he is a historian, so yeah, i would say it was an educated guess.
Historiaaaans! We drink and we know things. We're often unemployed. No one wants to hire us until some awful shit happens that no! one! saw! coming!