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Why did this player fold with 8sou?
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this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2023
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Woops, something must have gone wrong with the link, here it is: https://game.mahjongsoul.com/?paipu=jljrno-03uu0v97-a10c-69if-fgfa-dinigjistwmu_a439702673_2
I see, I understand that 8 has statistically less chances to be a wait due to this. So if I had to choose between the 6man and the 8sou and all the other factors were equal, that alone would make 8sou the better choice.
However, in that case choosing the 8sou meant breaking tenpai. The gap between 1st and 2nd place is very small so if it were me, maintaining tenpai would take priority over this slight statistical advantage. Because it would not only allow a small chance to secure the victory with a win but also to avoid losing the 1st place due to noten penalty.
In summary in that situation I would prioritize my actions as such:
To me it feels like he chose 3rd option even though 2nd was available. Which makes me believe it was actually 1st option and I just didn't see how
The player across from them hasn’t thrown a single character tile, they could be on a half flush, full flush, pure flush, who knows. They haven’t called riichi, but they are against three open hands so maybe they’re in damaten.
The player to the right hasn’t thrown anything above 2m. They could have the red dragons and be going for a half flush too and have a dora. That’s 5 han, could be a mangan, especially if you add the extra mini points you get from a kan.
The 6m is adjacent to the new Dora, either player could have a 7778. Now it might be 8 han.
The player has a two han hand and it’s not worth pushing for and risking dealing in to some hidden monster hand. All the 9s’s are gone, they can see all the 8s’s, there’s only one live 7s. And even if they do deal in with the 8s it’s not going to be into a flush hand of some sort, maybe 2 or three han?
Thank you very much! Yep that's crystal clear now. I completely failed to notice my own 7sou pon, that changes everything indeed.
And even without it you're right that although 8sou would be dangerous the 6man was definitely the most dangerous due to them not having discarded any manzu!
While in this case it turned out they were actually going for a 8sou wait and not manzu, they would probably have riichi'd upon tenpai, and they would to the contrary have been more likely to be damaten in case of manzu flush. I feel like I progressed a lot with that single thread thanks to you