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this post was submitted on 23 Dec 2024
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It's a no-win for them.
They lose the war and pull the trigger, and everyone from the janitor on up is prosecuted by the PRC as saboteurs.
They win the war and have blown up the factory? Goodbye #1 export product.
Its only value is as a hindrance to peaceful negotiation. The threat is actually more useful as a "we'll pull the plug if you abandon your defence commitments" rather than "we'll pull the plug when attacked". That bludgeon prevents Western powers from seeking a managed, Hong Kong/Macao sryle reunification strategy.
Or the US simply uses several Ohio-class submarines to glass the factories. Hooyah Navy. Hopefully take out as much of the PLA as possible along the way. Let them try ruling over a pile of dust and ash.
The US seeks to use Taiwan to threaten China and if it can’t it will destroy the island to hurt both the Chinese and the Taiwanese. This extremist viewpoint is similar to a bitter ex who kills his girlfriend to keep her from loving another man.