Russia has officially announced a naval blockade on Ukraine, to start 00.00 20/07/23.
“In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” reads a message the MoD issued on the social messaging platform Telegram. “Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”
In my view this is a desperate escalation from Russia and only serves to project their weakness. Despite what the media says, I don't think this is a retaliation to the latest damage to the Kerch Bridge as the strike was conducted between both the VKS and Navy and would have taken more time to plan such an operation. This was pre-planned, they were never going to re-negotiate the BSGI.
Given that Türkiye has supported Black Sea shipping previously by escorting ships through the passage, thisay be the outcome. And against that Russia can do nothing without putting themselves at risk of international intervention, which I'm sure we all agree will not end well for them. But such an act may require UN Charter to ensure actual international support and backing.
The other option would be for Türkiye to simply close the Strait, which they are perfectly well within their rights to do. Effectively blockading the blockade. The only nations that will be significantly affected are those that are Russian or Russian aligned. Everyone else will be able to reroute via land routes (granted at extra expense and time).
What will this mean for the world? Prices increasing yet more for our food items.
Rather short sightedly, China and other BRICS nations are a significant consumer of Ukrainian grain, so I assume that they won't be too pleased at this.
In a completely unrelated note Putin has decided not to show up to the BRICS summit where China and those aforementioned other nations are going to be present.
Doesn't this concentration of forces in the Black Sea leave Siberia temptingly undefended?
This whole thing leaves most of Russia undefended. That's why the Freedom of Russia, Russian Volunteer Corps, and Wagner groups were able to easily get into some of the most developed and populated parts of Russia.
Some of the more obvious proof that the Kremlin's claim that this barbaric invasion is "self-defense".
IIRC Turkey has already closed the corridor to the black sea for warships in accordance to Montreux Convention, I'll check for sources and update the comment
Edit: Wikipedia had the relevant bits
If this was a game of Risk this would be the time to be piling up all your pieces in Alaska.
Tempting to who? Realistically in modern days you lose more than you gain by going to war. You are much better off focusing on your own internal development, and peaceful development of other countries.
Japan. They were still negotiating a peace treaty with Russia from WWII just before the invasion last year, and they want the Kuril Islands back.
(This is largely a joke, but I still hold out hope)