Microsoft needs to sell its software (including OS) and they’ve always done so through manufacturers.

The average user, in their mind, doesn’t care about/want/have a choice for Windows, they just went to a shop to buy a computer, Windows was just on it. So for Microsoft, a public company who’s graphs need to keep going up forever, “increasing revenue from Windows” equates to “making people buy more computers” - this, in my opinion, is why they went down the TPM route (which consumers didn’t care about), and now, the “Copilot compatible” PC (whixh users don’t care about) routes. For the shareholders, you need a new computer, not an update to your existing one.

So this is where it gets interesting - a catch 22 for Microsoft - the average user doesn’t want a new computer (the internet works fine right), but Microsoft need their graphs to go up and they don’t want to work for free… BUT they can’t afford to have “Windows” become synonymous with “viruses” again (they bothered to make Windows defender for free for this reason), so if people don’t pay up, there could be millions of virus ridden computers and everyone will look for a new laptop “but not windows again” because of the viruses…

Mac instead? Maybe, but most laptops are sold for €300, not €1000+…

Current known, “safe consumer choice” brands (OEMs) and big box retailers are and will continue to be influenced/controlled/blackmailed by Microsoft’s license pricing and legal teams to maintain the status quo on the shelves and we’ll see what plays out.

This subscription talk then is big news, not just because of the controversy surround subscriptions generally, but because this could change the shape of supply and demand in the PC market significantly.

As always there won’t be one answer for everyone, but these are some ways it could play out.

• Microsoft forgets the idea
• Microsoft offers a free version supported by ads
• Consumers pay up, even if it takes a generation
• Consumers move to Apple
• Major PC manufacturers and retailers spite Microsoft terms, and offer alternative OS’s
• Smaller/new PC manufacturers rise, and offer alternative OS’s

Will people pay up? Will Chromebooks take over?

Or…

(Removes sunglasses)

…will 2025 be the year of the Linux desktop?