115
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
115 points (100.0% liked)
Technology
37689 readers
211 users here now
A nice place to discuss rumors, happenings, innovations, and challenges in the technology sphere. We also welcome discussions on the intersections of technology and society. If it’s technological news or discussion of technology, it probably belongs here.
Remember the overriding ethos on Beehaw: Be(e) Nice. Each user you encounter here is a person, and should be treated with kindness (even if they’re wrong, or use a Linux distro you don’t like). Personal attacks will not be tolerated.
Subcommunities on Beehaw:
This community's icon was made by Aaron Schneider, under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
It really depends on your assumptions. If you assume that software and hardware will stay at the current level, then the article does present a valid point. I would argue that those assumptions are only reasonable in the short term. AGI development does depend on some big technological changes we haven’t seen yet, so it could take decades or even a century, but I wouldn’t call it impossible.
If you assumed that 1950s style vacuum tube computers were the best thing ever, you could safely say that playing a game like fortnite with your buddies living in different countries is completely impossible. Modern semiconductors and integrated circuits would have seemed pretty magical in that context.
If we assume that we’re going to be stuck with silicon, you can safely say that AGI just isn’t going to happen with these tools and methods. Since quantum computers aren’t quite useful just yet and optical computers aren’t even in the news in any meaningful way, it seems that we will be stuck with silicon for quite some time. However, in the long term, you can’t really say that for sure. Technological developments have taken sudden and unpredictable jumps from time to time.