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I think this is underestimating how motivated democrats are to vote for biden
I don't really care for the man but I will vote for him over any shitty neocon fascist.
And that's the key. Literally the only people left of center who aren't voting for him have to twist themselves into an ideological pretzel to avoid it, and they are mad that the GOP makes the decision so obvious.
You can tell they're pissed off that when a guy in a white hood runs against a pro-labor railfan they don't get the chance to be deliberative and critical about their decision to vote. They hate that the decision tree converges on voting for him because it's either outright support for his policies or critical support against fascists. So they come up with these wild reasons not to vote for him and spend inordinate amounts of time denying that they supported outcomes that favor Republicans on the state and local level as a consequence of their defection.
Yeah, but there is a factor to turnout of how much the candidate at the top of the ticket is activating voters. And with articles like this one, saying “trump will surely lose,” that excitability factor only increases in importance.