Pieces don’t gain kinetic energy in a collision. Even if they collide and get sent off in an “upwards” direction, it’s not up very far relative to the orbit, and that’s just a less circular orbit at lower speed that will burn up even faster

For you scenario to work, there would have to be a chain reaction

• collision, sending a few pieces upwards
• during that small number of orbits they survive, collision, sending a few pieces upward
• repeat many times

Each chance is remote enough, and ricocheting pieces only go so far, and any higher satellites they could reach are also low orbit, that I can’t imagine how remote the chances of this happening are

Kessler syndrome is a real worry, but not in this low orbit