I’ve been an androgynous (cis gay) man most of my life, and when I was young I was mistaken for a girl a lot. Hell I even had my own doubts for a while.
There’s lots of people out there that think that they can tell if someone is trans or not. Hell I have met LGBTQ+ people that think they can just tell. The truth is, they can’t.
You will have met trans people that you didn’t know are trans, and if you go around making assumptions, you’ll meet cis people you think are trans, but aren’t.
A couple of months ago I found out that this person I’ve been casually following on YouTube for almost a decade is a trans woman.
Like the absolutely easiest, most accurate way to tell if someone is trans is to just ask the person in question.
Follow the money. Perhaps they are nutcases as you say, but I think it’s purposeful propaganda. It serves their agenda, and so they spread a false reality and get adherents.
If you’re a minority class trying to control a majority population, you’ll make your work much easier for you if you ensure that the population you’re trying to control is pitted against one another.
You see it in Christianity. Take 50% of the population, pit it against the remaining 50% and now you only have to control half the people, because that half will control the rest, and they’ll be more keen to do what you want because they’ll want to remain in control. Thus, original sin.