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Emissions are no longer following the worst case scenario (www.theclimatebrink.com)
submitted 1 year ago by Spzi@lemm.ee to c/collapse@sopuli.xyz
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cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/1282318

Ultimately, the progress we have made should encourage us that progress is possible, but the large and growing gap between where we are headed today and what is needed to limit warming to well-below 2C means that we need to double down and light a (carbon-free) fire under policymakers to ratchet up emissions reductions over the next decade. Flattening the curve of global emissions is only the first step in a long road to get it all the way down to zero.

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[-] LuckyJones@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

While the title of their article is correct, it's not exactly the full story. Human emissions as accounted for by the Global Carbon Project have leveled off but atmospheric CO2 and CH4 are still rising. (And in CH4's case, accelerating rapidly)

Atmospheric CO2 vs. RCP

Atmospheric CH4 vs. RCP

While the leveling off is a big improvement, we are a very, very long way from fixing this and feedbacks are kicking in that may well make it impossible.

And just for reference, here are the RCPs out to 2100:

RCPs - CO2

RCPs - CH4

If you're interested, you can get RCPs here and observations from NOAA.

[-] NorthernMonk@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 year ago

"If we do not start reducing global emissions over the coming decade, plausible scenarios to limit warming to below 2C will move out of reach as well."

Aren't we already plausibly tracking roughly +2.7 °C or so?

We are 100% going to hit +1.5 °C already in the early 2030s.

this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2023
25 points (100.0% liked)

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