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Retailers fear things that would help consumers consume? Sounds like retailers don't know how to succeed without gouging.
The last time USA had extended deflation, the Great Depression happened. When people stop consuming, retailers fire their workers. Then fewer people can consume, so more people get fired. This goes on enough, then its not just stores who fire workers, but it trickles to factories, R&D, office workers, etc. etc. The longer deflation happens, the further it spreads and the more people lose their jobs.
Ever since the Great Depression happened, US Policy has been strongly anti-deflation. Our policy is to "err" on the side of slight inflation.
So what happens when retail workers don't get paid enough to consume even with jobs?
Prices drop, causing more people to get fired. IE: The Great Depression. Or if you want a modern economy that's undergoing this shift, just look at China right now.
If people can't afford things, your only choice is to fire workers and drop prices further. That's just economics. (Why do you need workers? No one is buying anything, so fire your workers. Duh). The more people realize that this is the only strategy to survive, the lower prices get, the more people get fired, and the less that people can consume. It gets worse and worse until economists change policy and pull you out of this.
This is why we have large pseudo-government central banks keeping watch over our economy. Deflation cannot be tolerated. Yes, inflation sucks, but at least people still have jobs and livelyhoods in times of inflation or hyperinflation even. That's actually survivable. Deflation is NOT survivable, it sucks so much worse. Deflation is all-hands-on-deck we need to work together kind of situation. We never want to push the economy to that direction.
China isn't doomed btw. China's plan is to exports goods to Europe and hope that Europe buys enough Chinese crap that they can kickstart demand again. And as prices drop further and further, Chinese goods will get cheaper, and crap like Temu will pop up to sell these cheaper goods to everyone. Now there's geopolitical repercussions to this (not everyone will want to support such "dumping" of goods into our countries), so there's no guarantee that China will be successful on this front.
In that case tie minimum wage to inflation so no matter how bad inflation gets the poorest don't lose their shirts (and stop consuming)
Oh, so in times of deflation you want minimum wages to drop automatically? Deflation is "negative inflation". I'm talking about the inverse scenario compared to what you're talking about. Sorry, that sounds like a terrible idea.
And unfortunately for your argument... despite the high amount of inflation in 2022 and 2023, consuming rose dramatically. Or did you forget how ridiculously overpriced everything got, all those shoes / collectables people bought and the stock market skyrocketing as too much money was flooding the markets?
That's called an "overheated economy", too many people did too well during the times of inflation. That's... kind of the problem. Inflation happens when lots of people make more money.
IE: Emperically speaking, we can just look at the results of the last ~3 years of the USA's economy. Consuming went up with inflation, just as expected. There's no need to "encourage" consuming during inflationary bubbles.
In fact, what got inflation under control was the huge amounts of +Interest Rates encouraged by the FFR. Did you not notice the dramatically higher credit card rates that are cutting into people's budgets? That's almost by design, increasing the FFR increases all loan costs (house mortgages, credit card bills, and car loans). That's how we fix inflation, by kind of destroying money / taking money away from people.
We should have increased taxes instead IMO, so that our budget could have been managed better. But whatever, inflationary-bubbles are caused by over-consumption. The goal when inflation/hyperinflation is occurring is to cut back on consuming, and you discourage that by doing policies that are deflationary in nature.
IE: The Fed is currently slamming on the brakes (ie: doing policies that risk a deflation right now), to cut back on the chances of inflation. That's why retailers are scared, they're worried that the Fed is pumping the brakes too hard / increasing interest rates too much right now.
So should wages for poor people ever go up, in your opinion?
What's your opinion on legislation that would tie wages to their ROI for the business?
Edit: Why not force large corporations to pay their CEOs less so they can raise wages for their employees while keeping prices the same? It seems like you/economists realize corporations will let the country go to shit while stealing as much of the profit as possible and prefer that average workers deal with the detrimental impacts.
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We're only at risk for people stopping food consumption if prices don't fuckin fix themselves, and I'm serious about that. People are gonna eat if they can eat.
COVID19 saw massive declines in food consumption, to the point where milk was dumped, pigs were slaughtered, chickens were culled.
US Policy under such times is to keep producing high amounts of food to ensure our food security and fund the dumping of milk, pigs, chickens, etc. etc. It takes years to grow an animal for slaughter, if we didn't do that we would have had not enough meat as we came out of COVID19.
So much of our economy worked because we have policies and watchdogs thinking about economic policies. This sort of shit is invisible to the typical citizen, but is key to why our country came out on top, while others did not.
We still had a big blip in egg prices on the reverse end as we came out of COVID19 and people wanted fancier foods again. But we normalized pretty quickly in the great scheme of things, and our policy to explicitly waste food during recessionary times / deflationary times (like COVID19) was key to making sure our production pipeline remained full, and that our food supply remained secure.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/business/coronavirus-farmers-killing-pigs.html
These are dark days on many American pig farms. Coronavirus outbreaks at meatpacking plants across the Midwest have created a backlog of pigs that are ready for slaughter but have nowhere to go. Hundreds of thousands of pigs have grown too large to be slaughtered commercially, forcing farmers to kill them and dispose of their carcasses without processing them into food.
People will stop consuming meat if I dunno... meatpacking plants are full of COVID19 sickness and no one packs any meat. The pigs get shot / burried instead and the end-consumer goes without pork for a bit. This literally just happened a few years ago, so I'm surprised people don't remember this...
We literally staved off an apocalyptic economic event through shear determination. We should be more proud of our accomplishment.
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We are not at risk for any sort of sustained deflation. Inflation is currently over 3% (higher than the Fed's target of 2%) and interest rates are very high. We have a lot of wiggle room if inflation starts dropping.
The cause of the great depression was overextended credit and stock market gambling. Deflation was present because people didn't have as much money (or credit) to spend, but it was merely a symptom of an economic downturn, not the cause.
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Line go up….this quarter, or else.
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Inflation is a funny word for "price gouging."
Right?
Like... It's not some great mystery. We see inflation at 5% and prices go up 8, 10...15%...and the companies say it's because inflation.
I am a private music teacher, and while most private teachers will go through a school to do lessons, I've just gone freelance and do it all myself. I get to set prices and recruit or not and I have so much freedom, but one thing I found was that in setting prices, people will pay what you say. If they can't I'll chat a bit to see what the situation is and see where I can make discounts of course, but wealthy families are willing to do $100 an hour easy. I know I could bump it to $150 for some.
Basically all I'm saying is inflation is BS for companies making up higher prices.
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No we are tired of price gouging by corporations. They’re fucking price fixing.
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This article makes me want to vomit. All these companies and CEOs talking about inflation like it's this intangible phantom that nobody can get a grasp on.
“If one looks at inflation over time, we very rarely get into periods of sustained deflation. That’s just not a consumer effect,” Coke CEO James Quincey said Feb. 13."
It's the companies and CEOs price gouging. Call a spade a spade for Christ's sake.
They're incapable of sincerity.
Question for the economists in this thread. Everyone seems to be saying that a lack of at least some inflation is bad but also that wages going up to meet it is bad. Isn't this a system automatically doomed to fail? Eventually in such a setup no one can afford anything and the economy collapses.
Inflation is fine as long as wages rise with it.
The issue is our economy is entirely built around low interest rates and low inflation. It's been that way for a generation. This benefit asset-holders like home owners and the wealthy. Hence why they are doing everything possible to avoid wage-growth. They don't care about inflation, what they are terrified of is wage growth and higher interest rates.
Not an economist per se, but what my econ prof in college put on the test is, more or less, that workers' penury will eventually force them to take action to raise wages. This includes everything from strike actions to workers in general simply refusing to take the lowest-paid jobs anymore. The fact that employers will delay this process as long as possible and keep the raises as small as possible and workers will have to fight like hell to get even pitiful raises is also part of the theory. It's a story of gIvE aNd tAKe that ignores the government took massive action last year to prevent the labor market from responding to the new market conditions and routinely acts to prevent wages from rising "too fast." The price of everything can inflate to hell, but if the price of labor goes up in direct response just like every other commodity, whoa now, stop the presses, that's an economic problem.
Inflation is easier to handle and not as bad for the economy as deflation, so that's where we are always at.
2% inflation and 2.5%-3% wage gains where the difference is made up by productivity gains would be the ideal.
The thing people are scared of is a wage-price spiral where inflation is 10% so wages have to rise 10% which increases employer costs so they raise prices 10% so wages have to rise 10% etc. High inflation that becomes self-perpetuating.
Wages rising faster than inflation is good, but the risk of a wage-price spiral is what people are afraid of with rising wages.
The problem is credit. People and government buying things not with money but credit. Basically IOUs from a parent to a child. In this metaphor it's like our shitty fucking parents paying home security bills amd groceries with credit cards and using cash for the casinos.
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New challenges for retailers such as:
Not hitting record profits year after year. Reducing their CEO from a five yacht household to a four yacht household. Finding ways to hardline lobby to reduce taxes to zero.
Hah. Like the CEOs will bear any brunt of this burden.
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They tighten their belts, we tighten our belts, everybody loses. All because they got to have all the money and never leave anything on the table for the working class.
Yall made your nut with pandemic price hikes, now eat your fuckin crow.
They won't. They will continue to cut costs by skipping health and safety requirements and laying off employees. There must always be profit.
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It's time to stop spending.
I've cut back on everything, not just because its expensive but because I want to send a message.
If even 10% did this, the corps would shit themselves bloody.
100% agree. I have personally stopped eating fast food months ago. The quality is the worst it has ever been and it is outrageously priced. Same goes for soda, chips, and other junk food. Junk food was supposed to be cheap. When you stop making it cheap....you don't have a consumer base.
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When's the last time the US saw significant deflation? The 30's? Can't say I blame them for their fear. But they'll see no sympathy from me! We've seen two whole generations born, raised, and passing away in the age of "Number always go up!" business. At least the greatest generation grew up hearing stories of difficult times when it was the unions and collectives that brought them through the darkness. I'm sure current business leadership has no clue how to face this. It's passed out of living memory.
You can see the massive deflation happening in China right now as youth unemployment hits 25%.
No thanks. We don't want that over here. Inflation is (and always will be) better than mass unemployment. If you want lower prices, open up our trade with others (IE: Import China's goods since they're suffering from deflation: we can benefit from those lower prices).
What are the root causes of that deflation though? I would posit the over extension of the Chinese economy in an effort to mimic "Number go up" results without the required fundamentals (see evergrande).
I see "inflation is good" parroted a lot, without much analysis as to why. I understand how continual inflation is a major driver of modern western economies, and those steering those economies require it to support current polocies and the general status quo. However, that being said, I fail to see how that makes it required for things to be "OK".
The price of a raspberry "inflates" in the winter, and "deflates" when in season. The price of commodity consumer electronics is in a continual state of deflation, as new teohnology emerges. At the microcosm prices move in both directions frequently, and are just deemed adjustments. Why then, at the macro scale is a continual increase in pricing considered a sign of economic health?
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Fuck retailers. Have less shareholder profit and get over it. They want profit to be fixed or increasing. They view it in an accounting sense as something they cannot have decrease, ever. This is unrealistic and makes them do stupid things.
There is no sin greater in capitalism than uncaptured profit, none.
Fuck capitalism and the barbaric world it creates. We are better than this but the sociopaths like to count big numbers.
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Profits must always go up.
Guillotine's can also go up.
I like it best when they come down.
Chickpeas, soyflakes, rice, hemp & chia seeds, quinoa, tofu, lentils, flour. Most of the dried goods have a shelf life of 1-2 years. The cost of them is sinking in germany. I'm fine with people complaining about rising cost of meat, eggs and dairy and ignoring that fine sources of protein, minerals and vitamins. More for me.
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I thrift pretty hard now.
Even thrifting is expensive now. The truth is, there's nowhere to cut and that's why it's hurting so many people.
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this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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