Intuition or just highly tuned pattern recognition?
Or specifically seeing things that break the pattern, even if only slightly?
Is there a difference?
Nope.
Intuition is a word for thoughts that we don't experience consciously until they're fully formed. Large language models only have access to intuition, which is why they're so racist. They always say the first thing that pops into their head, and they can't explain why they thought of it except by guessing.
This
I am cursed with people asking my advice, my advice being correct, them failing to heed my advice to their detriment. Time after time. People value my judgment, because it is pretty good, then proceed to do the opposite of it.
That probably sounds self absorbed, but it's not like I'm an oracle or anything. It's just usually fairly obvious stuff, but people are often irrational and do wacky things.
Oh boy, are you me? I've spent most of my life feeling like Cassandra. I'm not even particularly smart, but it's like a lot of people just can't see the incredibly obvious and inevitable outcomes of their actions?
I feel your frustration. I felt the same way about parenting. The number of "you'll understand when you're a parent" responses I got was depressing. Guess what, now I have a child to apply it on, my advice works awesomely 90% of the time.
Fled America when Biden was still president. Urged all my friends to do the same. If told-ya-so's were money I'd have fixed income in perpetuity.
Unfortunately, moving is expensive and citizenship elsewhere is expensive and complicated.
I'll get the fuck out eventually. Hopefully.
A lot of people don't have good options, I hate how much governments treat people like property and immigrants like invaders. I'm a dual citizen but getting family visas for everyone else has been financially ruinous. Hope they can get citizenship soon.
When trump won in 2016 I told all my trans friends to buy guns and bought them books about starting mutual aid/defense networks, explaining to them the democratic party soon would abandon them.
They were all still pretty liberal and were still very antigun. A lot of them thought I was losing it at the time. Since then I've taken most of them to the gun range to teach them how to shoot.
You're a good friend. Hope the mutual aid is going well, it's a less exciting day than the gun range maybe - but that's going to be a big deal sooner or later.
Go to a rural town in Utah. Listen to a medium/long conversation between two local people at a gas station or diner etc. Drive to another rural town. Start a conversation the exact same way you just saw and play the role of whoever started the conversation.
There is a non-zero chance the entire new conversation will replicate the original one verbatim even down to the pauses, cadence, and inflections of the original conversation, despite it occurring with an entirely different person several dozen miles away.
Intuition is easy when people around you think exactly the same way about everything
You found the IRL equivalent of Skyrim "radiant A.I." NPCs
A life time of obsessive pattern recognition done to try to fit in will do that.
Mine's great, but it takes so long that by the time it proves correct, everyone has the AHA face and says "boy i wish someone had told me this 15 yrs ago before it was too late".
Pretty good. I always expect it to be wrong, but still allow myself to be a bit cautious. But pretty much always in the right, sometimes might take longer to see the results.
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