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submitted 13 hours ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US intelligence, Russia could be preparing a limited incursion against a NATO member state within weeks. The report comes as the war in Ukraine remains largely deadlocked and the impact of the conflict is increasingly felt inside Russia.

Analysts cited in the report suggest Vladimir Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine, raising fresh questions about NATO’s readiness and resolve.

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[-] ChunkMcHorkle@lemmy.world 2 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

This is The Wall Street Journal article from August 6, 2026 that the above Deutsche Welle article is referencing. DW did so without linking WSJ directly; I had to go find it manually, but fortunately a number of outlets reported on it.

The original WSJ report is far more nuanced than this headline might indicate, and talks about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO over the coming years. One of the more credible things it said is

Putin’s goal in attacking NATO during a continuing war with Ukraine, if it happens, would be to fracture the alliance, the U.S. officials said. “The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” said Heather Conley, senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, on a possible Russian incursion. “It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.”

It's a good article. For those who'd like to read the original, here are the links:

U.S. Intel Finds Putin Could Test NATO’s Resolve With Limited Incursion -- The Wall Street Journal (behind paywall)

Archive link -- there are known problems with the site but it has the content; use at your own discretion

[-] thedeadwalking4242@lemmy.world 4 points 3 hours ago

loosing war

Opens another front

Surely this will fix things

[-] EpicFailGuy@lemmy.world 26 points 8 hours ago

any article with a hypothetical in the headline is ABSOLUTE GARBAGE and I refuse to read them.

Russia COULD attack NATO next month .... or it could disintegrate tomorrow just like the USSR

https://tenor.com/view/gino-d'acampo-gino-dacampo-this-morning-grandmother-wheels-gif-1270420353161197650

[-] Mulligrubs@lemmy.world 6 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Please recall that the CIA and like organizations have been doing this for about 70 years. It's how they get their budgets increased. Their massive black budgets that we are not allowed to know about.

Recommend "Legacy of Ashes" by Weiner. The CIA hates this book, and used to specifically attack it on their website. The absolute best possible endorsement, in my opinion.

No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse.

[-] yesman@lemmy.world 60 points 12 hours ago

This doesn't make any sense. NATO is much stronger than it was before the war. Russia is much weaker.

The Baltic States started the war isolated, partially surrounded by Russia. Today they sit in a NATO lake that can not only support the Baltics, but threaten St Petersburg.

Russia would have to defend a front stretching from the Black sea to the Arctic sea.

Even if the US declined to help, Russia starts in a position of great weakness. And worse still, everyone knows it.

[-] kwozyman@lemmy.world 43 points 11 hours ago

Putin needs a defeat from NATO, not from Ukraine alone. If he loses to the biggest military alliance of the world, he might be able to somewhat sell it to the public on the home front. It would also play right into the propaganda they've been spewing that Russia is fighting the collective West.

[-] WanderingThoughts@europe.pub 6 points 8 hours ago

It's probably seriously frustrating for Putin to keep poking NATO with drones or other stuff and not get anybody retaliating.

[-] bad1080@piefed.social 7 points 6 hours ago

not getting a reaction when he annexed crimea in 2014 was exactly what got us into the current situation

[-] CapuccinoCoretto@lemmy.world 24 points 11 hours ago

this doesn't make any sense.

Agreed, but if I had a dollar for every time the world did something stupid and non-sensical I would be emperor of Earth.

[-] plyth@feddit.org 4 points 11 hours ago

Non-sensical to you or non-sensical to the people in power?

[-] VinegarChunks@lemmus.org 13 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Russia’s invasion if Ukraine , for example, makes perfect sense if you’re a dictator surrounded by yes-men blowing smoke up your ass about your amazing military strength for years (while they take the military money and spend it on yachts in the Mediterranean)

I really doubt Putin would make this particular mistake twice though

[-] plyth@feddit.org 3 points 11 hours ago

blowing smoke up your ass about your amazing military strength for years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

Can they hide that?

[-] CapuccinoCoretto@lemmy.world 2 points 8 hours ago

The paranoid schizophrenic who chopped a stranger's head off on a bus, unprovoked, thought he was reasonable - a demon intent on acts of unspeakable evil had to be destroyed. :/

[-] idiomaddict@lemmy.world 2 points 8 hours ago

Yes, and humans with rabies will refuse to drink, even though they need water to survive. Decisions made under literal medical delusions aren’t stupid or nonsensical, they’re misinformed and inherently alogical.

[-] CapuccinoCoretto@lemmy.world 1 points 6 hours ago

The point is it felt reasonable at the time to the individual.

[-] stickyprimer@lemmy.world 1 points 6 hours ago

This is a half-formed thought but Russia is quite strong in exactly one way: nuclear warhead count. That doesn’t help him resupply Crimea but perhaps he’s trying to change the scope or scale of the conflict in a way that would make this strength more relevant?

[-] perviouslyiner@lemmy.world 5 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

Are they specialised in this new type of war, though? I saw something about Americans being wiped out in simulated exercises against Ukrainian drone operators - and the Russians will be bringing that kind of experience to someone who has only been learning in classrooms from Ukrainians.

[-] nerdyshades@lemmy.world 2 points 7 hours ago

Although they did initially get "wiped out", but (from the article):

by repeating the training scenario throughout the two-week exercise, US Army troops got better at figuring out how to disperse and hide from the drones while using countermeasures such as electronic warfare.

Which is the point of these exercises. It’ll still take time to modify doctrine and train, but the US is now more practically informed on this type of warfare.

[-] infinitesunrise@slrpnk.net 28 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US intelligence

Yeah OK, you can stop reading there. Two of the biggest propaganda outlets in the western world, both hawkish, would fucking love an open war with Russia and have been saying it's imminent for decades.

This scenario is a right wing fantasy.

[-] mrmaplebar@fedia.io 8 points 9 hours ago

That's a bold strategy cotton...

[-] HootinNHollerin@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 12 hours ago

I look forward to seeing a red stain on the streets of Moscow knowing it used to be Putin

[-] HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 hours ago

That man hasn't walked on a Moscow street for years

[-] MutantTailThing@lemmy.world 10 points 12 hours ago

Not gonna lie, I kinda hope they do.

Kick their fucking asses once and for all.

NATO should have made a no fly zone over Ukraine years ago. Call their pissant little bluff. Red lines my asshole.

[-] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 20 points 11 hours ago

A no-fly zone isn't just "we make their planes go away". It means you need to fly there. And that means you need to take out their AA, and their airborne radar outside the zone, and their ground based radar. You need to take out their ability to fly, so you need to kill the airfields, which means taking out the close range AA at those fields.

To establish a no-fly zone, you need to bomb the ever living shit out of Russia, not just inside Ukraine but deep within Russian borders too. The 2011 no-fly zone over Libya involved attacking 600 tanks, for example (insert turret-toss joke here), and thousands of ground-attack sorties.

Make no mistake, a "NATO no-fly zone" is just a declaration of war, without any boots crossing the border at ground level.

Not that I think we shouldn't, but it's not exactly easy

[-] dan1101@lemmy.world 3 points 9 hours ago

It will work as long as the USA can't veto NATO actions. Which I'm sure they will try to.

[-] RobotFK 6 points 12 hours ago

What good is a no fly zone over Ukraine if the only thing left in the airspace is mostly Drones without ID? If I remember Russia launches most of its long range missiles from way behind the front already.

[-] plyth@feddit.org 2 points 11 hours ago

How can that be enforced? Can Nato evade S400 rockets?

[-] TheVoiceOfRaison@thelemmy.club 13 points 13 hours ago

I personally feel as the Ukraine conflict drags on Russia will throw a hail Mary, get its ass completely kicked and Putin either tops himself or is off'd by his own.

[-] Tango@piefed.ca 3 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Analysts cited in the report suggest Vladimir Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine

Does Putin play Weiqi/Baduk/Go? A common strategy when a player is losing in one part of the board is for them to open up new "fronts" in other areas of the board, hoping that they're more successful in one of these other areas and that this will yield a new advantage in the original area they had been losing in. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't; what it usually comes down to is whether they're able to "read" the game further ahead than the opponent, in the hopes that the opponent won't see how developments in Area B will affect Area A.

[-] psx_crab@lemmy.zip 1 points 3 hours ago

The big difference here is the other front is another player. If they actually do strike NATO they are basically putting down another board and play with another player without additional piece.

this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2026
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