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This Is a Forever War in the Making
(www.nytimes.com)
Here is a scenario that is terrifyingly likely. To control the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. really needs to take Kharg Island. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal, because the U.S. has the military power to do so. However, holding the island will require a continuous U.S. presence, including troops and keeping them resupplied. The importance of the island in controlling the Strait and the blockade of Iran makes this a critical strategic loss for Iran that it cannot accept, so you can be 100% certain that Iran will throw everything it can at making the invaders regret their efforts. The island is just off the coast of Iran, making it relatively easy for Iran to attack. Inevitably, their drones or missile strikes will have some success. Perhaps sinking a high value U.S. ship, killing many and embarrassing Trump. Trump, a raging narcissist that has long been itching to use the nukes, will see this embarrassment as an excuse to show the world that the U.S. "will not be pushed around", and order the use of nukes. Having cleared the sane people from military leadership, replacing them with his handpicked loyalists, they will do it. Ironically, this will be the end of the U.S. as we know it. To the extent the world's leadership has been willing to tolerate Trump and the belligerent U.S., it will open eyes and turn the world completely against the U.S.. I hope this scenario doesn't come to pass, but the odds of a nuclear attack happening are far greater than at any time prior in my lifetime.
