Right, but if you're watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don't know exactly when. That doesn't mean you're wrong to suggest we should stop inflating the balloon to avoid the pop.

If you just say the market will crash, maybe it will or maybe it won't. If you say that the conditions exist for a crash, and describe them accurately, you're right whether there is a crash or not.

And if you say there's 100% chance, not only are you likely to be wrong, you're also a useless moron deserving of ridicule.

Economics is great at coming up with plausible sounding stories about why things happened, but that doesn't mean those explanations are correct. The fact that the same theories lead to incorrect predictions is a strong indicator that the explanations are wrong, too.

Or to put it more bluntly, most of the field of economics looks a lot like a pseudoscience.

I guess biden got that blow after all

Not so much fake, as manufactured.

The jobs market was doing well, unemployment was low. Many middle-class people had been working remotely for two years, and saved thousands in commuting costs. The housing market was leveling out, prices were reasonable, and interest rates were low.

People were finally starting to feel an inkling of security and independence. They could afford to buy a house, change jobs, sell the second car, and put some money away for a rainy day.

Which is a nightmare scenario for corporations that feed on a financially desperate populace.

So corporations jacked up prices, blaming supply-chain issues, forced workers back into the office, and laid off thousands despite record profits.

The Fed pitched in, hiking interest rates, and locking millions of Americans out of the housing market, and with it, their best path to financial independence, and vowed to keep those rates high until the unemployment rate was back at a level that the Corporate masters determined sufficiently punitive, and the working class had exhausted their savings.

When the workers are acceptably cowed, and the wealthy are satisfied that they will no longer resist subjugation, they will declare the economy 'back to normal'

Just remember that low unemployment often means severe "underemployment" as people with degrees and other qualifications are forced to take jobs that pay significantly less.

And Biden, too.

No they did not. The NBER is always the office that declares a recession and they did not do so because employment numbers did not match recession like conditions.

Well first off, there was not remotely a recession this year. In 2022 we also did not have a recession, but a lot of people thought the NBER might call it one because of two consecutive quarters of real GDP going down. However, it barely went down, and other economic indicators looked very good (plus the rest of the year was a boom), so they didn't call it. A contemporary explanation from the Dallas fed is here and explains it: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0802/

Second off, the media DID report on it, because it's economic news. But it's economic news, so therefore boring and probably most people missed it.

Contemporary reporting by NPR

Contemporary reporting by CNBC

Contemporary reporting by Forbes

Contemporary reporting by Business Insider

Reuters recent analysis

More Recent Forbes

I could obviously keep going. But your hints at conspiracy and some kind of media involvement are both facile and uninformed.

The NBER, who declare recessions, never said there was one because the jobs numbers did not in any way suggest a recession. It's not just two quarters of negative growth that determine a recession and based on the fact that in Q1&2 it was fairly easy to find work suggested to the NBER that we weren't in a recession but rather a new an undefined situation.

It says US Recession.