Late stage capitalism.
Having kids is really expensive and insane amount of responsibility. Childcare is a full time job - so you need to go one worker per family, or be able to afford paying for it.
And it also becomes recursive I think.
People want to be good parents. But in late stage capitalism, that means setting your children up to succeed in that environment. If people struggle to set themselves up as parents, they can’t have faith that they’ll be able to set their children up such that there’s just no point. Especially if you start thinking about the future and whether your grandkids could even be ok.
As someone living in the USA going into my late 30s still without kids, you nailed it. We’ve been married for 10 years. In a different world, we might have had a kid at some point in the last 5, but between covid and climate change and the second Trump term and the general sense that everything is about to implode, it doesn’t really make us feel inspired to try.
To be clear, at the moment we have everything we would need to be parents if we wanted to. But the prospect of subjecting a kid to young adulthood in the 2040s seems brutal. We’re what I would consider “nudge-able” into having a kid or two, but the world keeps giving us nothing but nudges in the direction of choosing to be childfree for life.
Random example from this year: we keep getting barraged with news slop about how our jobs are about to all be replaced by LLMs or the economy is about to collapse under the weight of the LLM bubble. Not particularly reassuring. I realize there’s no perfect time to have kids and tons of people make it work, but as a couple who have always been in the “maybe” camp, inaction feels like the only thing a logical person would choose, year after year after year.
We don’t have many years left where it’s actually viable, and frankly I can’t imagine it’s going to change.
This is what happened to my wife and me. We kept waiting and delaying because shit sucked and now… we can’t. Nature made the decision for us, much to the dismay of my parents but to the joy of my bank account.
I'm sorry, but every human being from every generation has suffered from fear for their children. The future is always unknown. There's always been a looming future doom. The future of the climate is unprecedented, but so was the advent of the nuclear bomb. So was the advent of the trebuchet. So was the advent of steel.
The only certainty about the future is uncertainty. While absolutely terrifying, my view on it was even though it's scary, I'll give it a shot.
I do fear for my children's future, but so has every human who ever had children. I enjoy the here and now and carry the hope that masses truly care for each other and always will.
Yeah, people used to have a bunch of kids because they could help with work. It wasn't profitable, but they at least offset some of their own expenses by the end, and were often relied upon for all the work to get done. Now it's just fully another job and another expense; few people want to put in the work on top of all the other work they still need to do, and pay for the privilege.
Adding to that thought, you used to also have grandparents and elder family members who had the time and inclination to help out. This was especially true for those of us who were born to boomers. But now those people of that same age are having to work as things like greeters at Walmart just to be able to pay their own bills. So they don’t have the leisure time anymore to assist with raising grandchildren.
Nowadays, it's expected and often necessary for both people in a relationship to work full-time and have a career if they want to maintain a decent living standard. No time or money for having kids.
I'm sure there are other factors too, but this is a big one for sure.
Just looking at my family, both my parents had a stay at home mom and 3 siblings. Me and all my cousins have at most 1 sibling, with both our parents working but we always had two grandmas that could watch us if needed.
Had I kept the same timetable as my parents, my hypothetical kids would have had not just both parents working full time, but all grandparents too!
I agree I suspect this is a big one. 100% two income families are going to have less kids, and less time, and more income (hence as countries get richer they have fewer children)
But a career is less and less a woman's choice and more and more it's a requirement.
If average families could get by on one income with a decent standard of living I'm sure more women would decide to stay at home or work part time. I know at least one that would anyway..
Only get pregnant if you can afford it.
OK
No, not like that
It will differ by country but I've seen some poll from Poland recently:

For those few that don't speak polish:
- I don't need kids (37%)
- I can't afford it (20%)
- I'm worried about wars and instability (14%)
- Poorly working healthcare system (13%)
- I don't have the right partner
- I'm worried about unemployment
- Not enough support form the government
- Being a parent is too hard
- I'm worried about climate change
- Other (20%)
- I don't know (14%)
don't need kids
rather just be the fun uncle/auntie, borrow them for a weekend and enjoy the fun times.
Let the parents deal with the daily childhood drama
This is a great data pull btw. This is similar across much of the Global North.
This sort of track. I can identify with a lot of these answers at various times in my life.
It really does seem to be a combination of things.
As a middle aged person I'd also say that most people I know with kids were surprised for the first, or very religious.
My take is "How can I afford to have a kid when I can't even take care of myself?".
Late stage capitalism.
When it is already hard to save up and buy a house before it's too late for you and your partner to be capable of conceiving, is it any surprise?
I know plenty of people who would have a kid but don't because they simply can't afford to
We're like pandas in captivity. We'll fuck if the conditions are right. They haven't been right in a loooooong time. A little bit of enrichment in our enclosures would help tremendously.
The cost of living is too high. Having children is really expensive and you have to worry about whether they'll make it as adults or whether things will be even worse then
Countries can't have children, they're not alive.
Check out the big brain on BreadOven
Have you seen how the world is doing?
Here are my reasons:
- We are already starting to feel the effects of global warming, it will only get worse and people don't take it serious. Why should Ibput another soul into this world just to suffer from the stupidity of others?
- Child care is super expensive and quality isn't great and being a stay at home parent isn't really an option if you want too keep up in the work market place.
- Why should I have a kid, if I'm not gonna spend time with them? I mean to feed them & offer them all the anemities, me and my partner would need to work full-time, so when are we gonna spend time with our kid?
- edit see bellow why.
- I like my freedoms.
- The schooling system is shit. Why should I raise kids in a society that starts the "grind" at age 5 and keeps you going until you are 65?
- etc.
we all dream of having [...] neurotypical, cis kids, but it's a high possibility of that not being the case.
Is that a personal gripe of yours of there being more recognition for more neurodivergent and transgender recognition?
Oohhhhh shit, I worded that one horribly... my add brain fucked it up and it came out so worng... I first wanted We all dream of having healthy kids but what if they are not (thinking of cancers or other medical diseases) and than a second bullet point as in, what if your kid is not neurotypical or non cis (queer) are you able to deal with everything that comes with? (Thinking of how bad society has turned against them in the past few years with the rise of the far right and how dificult it is tobstand up for peoples rights).
I truly have nothing against neurospicy and queer people. I know the way I worded it was terrible, and should I have offended anyone, I'm terribly sorry. Also thank you for pointing it out!.
Ok cool, I wasn't sure so I figured I'd ask rather than accuse
I can't prove it but I suspect that they are having about as many children as they want and our expectations of 'fertility rates' are actually skewed by the number of unwanted pregnancies that were forced on people who then existed in the space of 'We didn't ask for this but now we love the little shit so I guess we'll make the best of it.' The world is and has been changing so fast for the last century or so that our sense of long term trends is much harder to understand.
I really, really dislike children
I have an amazing life, and the way I live is completely incompatible with kids, even if I wanted them
More people are realising that it's not compulsory to breed, and that they can have vastly better lives without children
Other activities outcompete children.
The other points like difficulty and money are valid but I think primarily kids are just not worth it for many and they'd rather travel or just have their own time which imo should be a perfectly acceptable take.
That's for the first child but once you got one the barrier for more is almost always finance or pregnancy difficulties. Kids don't scale as well as they used to.
Opportunity to do something else with your life. Kids are unaffordable. World is going to shit.
Here's the thing: lower birth rates are actually a sign of a more developed country. There are a number of reasons for this. If you can't be sure if the system will properly take care of you in your late years, people tend to have more children so that there will be someone to take care of them in old age. If people (especially women) are better educated, there will be more of a focus on persuing careers, and children can be an impediment to that. Also, if people have better access to healthcare and birth control, many will use it. Just a couple of examples.
As the average income of a country goes up, birthrate goes down. That's just how humans are. We guess at reasons, but it's just a universally observable fact.
All high income industrialized nations developed low birthrates. North america, europe, japan, korea and now china.
If rich nations allow room for anyone else to claw their way up out of the low end of the value chain, we'll see the same thing happen there.
Feminism/Equality and the changes it has brought.
This isn't a bad thing, which is important to get out early because some far-right groups use it as an example for why we should wind back the clock.
Most women in advanced countries work, they have and want to have meaningful careers. Having children conflicts with that, in the immediate significant time off, and the long term impact of being the default parent when they have issues at school or are sick.
Lifestyles in advanced countries really rely on two incomes. Stopping work for a significant period to raise multiple children is a significant impact on that income, plus the long term expenses of the child combine to reduce that lifestyle. Not having children, or reducing the number, can be an economic choice.
The culture of both parents working also impacts the support network. Your working, your friends are working, the village is behind a desk not supporting you.
Finally women get a choice now, which is a change that is recent, isn't global and doesn't seem to be as widely acknowledged as it should be.
Society needs to change to address these issues and provide these missing supports. Which is going to take time, but as they are addressed we will probably see the birth rates start to climb again.
While I appreciate the optimism, I'm not sure that the historical data bears out that we will probably see the birthrates climb again when the supports are in place. This is a massive challenge for all of the Global North, but especially Japan, China, South Korea, and then all the way up in the "developed world." Some where around Panama, Indonesia, or Myanmar is where you see the 2.1 replacement rate (from 2024 data), so something close to 100 countries below 2.1 TFR.
Bribes have been tried (as in one time payments for kids). Child Care coverage has been tried. Other structural changes (like the Nordic dual parent paternity leave, or even time shifted paternity leave like France and others).
Maybe you mean more than just economic and governmental supports. As Claudia Goldin has said "cultural changes around gender and women's autonomy are the primary drivers of fertility decline, not just economic factors that policies might address"
This is why, as an American, I'm so confused about the anti-immigration bonanza happening. It's not only against the American ethos, but shooting ourselves in the foot both economically and culturally. We need more people to make up for the future loss that is happening, and people from around the world have wanted to come. They pay for their worth in huge amounts (I'm already digressing so I won't paste more journals and such on this), and what's more if we want the economy to thrive and survive we need them... (Should we have a growth based economy is another question, that is worth asking, but again digression.)
Anyway, the point is Global North has tried and failed to address TFR, and no one has one that battle. Greater standard of living = lower TFR.
capitalism
I know 30-somethings that live with their parents because they cannot afford their own house and there are no decent rental houses available either.
Anecdotally, I’d say money and the world would be the two big things.
People don’t have enough money to raise kids. Americans can’t afford to give birth with hospital bills. Childcare is expensive, but the alternative is no income. People can’t accumulate generational wealth, so there’s nothing to pass on, therefore no need for anyone to pass it to.
Environmental anxiety is real. Why bring kids into a world that’s about to burn?
Maybe one last factor is rebellion. A small sample I feel like chooses not to have kids so as not to perpetuate the system. The billionaires can’t exploit my kids if I don’t have any.
Education time and income instability. People are well into their 30s before they know where to settle down after finishing an education. They're well into their 40s before they can afford to.
If any country wanted to increase childbirth rates, they ought to lower working time, increase education pay and move employment out of the central cities.
Or put simply: Money and time needs to be available for the people they want to reproduce.
Now, I just saw the latest Kurzgesagt episode on this, and there's one thing they missed: Automation. We don't necessarily need to keep a stable or increasing population if only we can automate a lot more labour. In my opinion it's the only solution to avoid the future population crisis.
The fragmentation of multigenerational households. Without that support network, raising children is much harder and more expensive and much, much more daunting.
The main reason, that for some reason no one talked about yet, is that we developed and have effective and cheap contraceptives.
All other concerns are almost irrelevant. The truth is that we are very driven by immediate desires, and the "later" problem of having children goes out of the window when you're horny and have the opportunity to have sex. If there's no access to contraceptives, the choice between having sex and having children, or not having sex and no children, is almost always won by "having sex".
But if you can have access to contraceptives, you do not have to chose between sex and no sex anymore. The reality is just that children have always been more inconvenient than not. I'm sure if at any point in history (or even in a perfectly utopian society) if contraceptives were developed and made available, and weren't before, the same thing would happen.
Everything is so god damn expensive. And it gets worse every single day.
Don't worry though, no country is really worried about it yet because if they were they would work on making things not so obscenely fucking ridiculously expensive. (Although knowing rich bastards they'd probably just let humanity die out before they lost 5¢ on every sale)
Or at least give some sort if credit to you to lift the burden a bit. I think maybe South Korea is doing this and some Nordic countries and even China too I believe.
But still, if you have to get the calculator out and figure out how many meals you need to skip this month to be able to pay your bills I think having sex is the last thing on your mind.
Shit, most people probably ran their mates off already from the insane, soul crushing, non stop fucking stress that being able to never get ahead in your entire life brings. Bonus points if you already had a child with them, now you get to have 25% if your income stolen from you for the next 18 years (25 if they go to college) even if you see them more than they do in a lot of instances. That will sure get you in the mood.
And if not its still hard to want to fuck when you're hungry or when you're constantly about to lose it all and barely hanging on by a thread and obsessing about that reality in your head every single second of every single day.
TLDR: shit is too god damn expensive and it just keeps getting worse with absolutely no end in sight.
Here in Northern Sweden the preschools in the cities are all closing down due to lack of kids. We have the opposite problem in the villages. Long waiting lists and shortages. Our municipality, population 5000, has 6 existing preschools and just built a new one. City housing costs more than 3 times as much as the villages and small towns. Families can't afford housing in the city. It's all rich retired people in the larger houses and young single people in tiny apartments.
i personally am afraid that my child would live through a terrible future. also: i just dont feel like it. so maybe the existential anciety is more subconcious? idk
There's only one culprit here, and it's 100% responsible for this phenomenon: Countries can't have children. Only People can have children.
Isn't it obvious?
They don’t want to.
Over here in Spain it’s because of lack of funding. Theres little to no support for child care, if you have a kid here your either working tooth to the bone or off well and even still you only have 1 kid because 2 is too expensive.
Because landmasses don't have reproductive organs with which to procreate.
japan and SOUTH korea have this insane work culture, that your lives or to live at your job, and must be drinking with t he bosses after. also heavily ostracized if you arnt making it in those countries. SK is apparently at a worst position than JAPAN birthwise goes.
china is currently have thier own crisis, thier 1-child policy has a created a deficiency of women , thats why they have become so obsessed of tracking womens lives, plus trying to "encourage sex. they also overproduce stem graduates with no job markets going around too. all this associated with HCOL as well.
plus the poor job markets for stem majors, even with tech laying off you can still find a job somewhere. but other stem have alot more requirements to enter the field. biotech, bio, Psyche if you think you can get away by not getting a PsyD or phd.
women getting education is a major factor of having less or no children, thats why there has been significant initiative in many universitis to help woman get experience in stem, like bio degrees. this does has unintentional effect of leaving men behind in bio specifically.
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