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I think this is a war of colonization that the United States is waging.
And? Who gives a fuck. I would expect China and Russia to help Iran. Why wouldn't they?
I do give a fuck. I'm glad they do because the only way I see for long term stability in that region, which affects my and my family's life in multiple ways, is for the US to lose the war as badly as possible.
I think were pretty screwed either way. If they ramp down, Iran sees them as an existential threat and ramps up nuke capability, but now with less sanctions and more money. Iran with nukes makes Israel more twitchy as they see it as an existential threat.
If USA ramps up, we're in for a long protracted war and instability.
So we're screwed either way.
I think Israel, without unlimited weapons backing of the US (a condition I think would occur if the US loses badly) would stop casual strikes against Iran. They would know they risk a barrage of missiles that they don't have the interceptors for. And if Iran gets the nuke, then MAD would be in effect. Israel seeing Iran as an existential threat now, not in the future would sit tight and perhaps even open a dialogue. The problem today is they consider Iran a threat in the future. And mind you they don't consider them a threat so much to Israel today than to their plans for expansion in Lebanon, West Bank, Syria and so on.
I think it's that they realize peak oil is over. The middle east is a geopolitical strategic position for energy, as the world is now finding out via Iran closing the SoH.
Israel realised that that is on the wane. Along with the next generations attitude towards their relationshipnwith Israel. Israel is going hard in now as they have a larger support from the USA. I fully expect that to naturally wind down due to internal US political change and global moves away from carbon fuel.
Sure, oil shocks would still bite, but nowhere near to the same level. It's why the other oil production states are desperately trying to pivot to other industries. Iran has screwed that by making them unsafe. America doesn't realize that by not protecting their allies there, in the same way they protect Israel, that they will lose them. Edit:typos
if only the orange child rapist had done that very simple math before thinking it was a good idea to attack Iran to hide his kiddy diddling crimes
I think middle east would be much much safer with iran having nukes
Lol, no. The world is safer with less nukes. Allowing Israel to get nukes was a failure of the international community.
Allowing Ukraine to face repurcussions for giving up their nukes was another failure.
The world is safer with less nukes.
The world is safer with no nukes and infinitely unsafe with infinite nukes. It's appealing to extrapolate from this that less nukes -> more safety, but that's an unjustified leap of logic. For example take the case of one nuclear state vs two nuclear states. If there's only one it can force its will on other states, but if there are two they can keep each other in check and drastically reduce the possibility of nukes actually flying.
Yes, I agree with your logic. However, Iran is a fundamentalist regime. They appear rational next to trump. That doesn’t make them rational. Otherwise there would have been an end to sanctions years ago. And an end to murdering dissidents and protestors.
I hate to defend Iran, but the Iranian regime is in fact very rational. This is easily apparent when you strip away the religious aspect and look at what they actually do. In all direct confrontations with Israel or the US (at least during Khamenei's rule, I'm not so sure about Khomeini), Iran has responded with measured actions aimed at de-escalation while saving face domestically and internationally and discouraging further aggression. Your image of Iran seems to be built on Western propaganda more than reality (again, I am not saying this to defend the Iranian regime).
Otherwise there would have been an end to sanctions years ago.
Uh... the sanctions are for daring to control their resources contrary to Western capitalist interests. Iran could be the most secular, most democratic country in the world and Western countries would still find a reason to sanction it. Besides, remember JCPOA? It was the US (and by extension the West) that reneged on that deal. Hell, remember the reason the Islamic Republic exists in the first place? Iran, quite rationally, wants to be an independent regional power not subordinate to anybody's interests (and, again quite rationally, especially not Western interests). This directly contradicts the Western (especially US) demand that all Middle Eastern states be subordinate to their interests and pro-Israel. There can be no reconciliation between these positions (yet Iran tried anyway, see: JCPOA), so securing its position by force is the only realistic prospect, and frankly you can't argue with results.
And an end to murdering dissidents and protestors.
Here you seem to be conflating rationality with morality. The Iranian regime is evil as fuck, but it's rationally evil. Murdering challengers to one's power is very rational from the perspective of a regime primarily concerned with its own survival. See also: the CCP.
You're looking at only the last few weeks. Historicallu, not so much. They have rejected monitoring. Rejected negotiating. Rejected reasonable terms that led to sanctions at multiple points.
Silencing dissent is logical but not creating martyrs in a culture that idolises them.
Clamping down on women for wearing what they choose with violence is not logical. It's consistent with their ideology, which is my point. The ideology supersedes logic.
In the case of ideology overriding logic, that could lead to use against Israel. Or even the suggestion could cause Israel to strike first as happened this time.
Their support of multiple factions in multiple neighbouring countries targeting than working constructively is also illogical and inflammatory
They have rejected monitoring. Rejected negotiating. Rejected reasonable terms that led to sanctions at multiple points.
What? Have you never heard of JCPOA?
Silencing dissent is logical but not creating martyrs in a culture that idolises them.
Authoritarianism is a balancing act between not creating martyrs and making dissent dangerous. You can't do one without the other, so while the Iranian regime might (or might not) be acting suboptimally the concern is still its own survival.
Clamping down on women for wearing what they choose with violence is not logical.
It gets points with their base of support, but also every regime anywhere does irrational things. The question is how much, so even if this was irrational (which again isn't guaranteed) it doesn't contradict with the wider point.
In the case of ideology overriding logic, that could lead to use against Israel.
[Citation needed]. Everything we have from the regime, both statements and actions, states otherwise. Iran can clearly deal significant damage to Israel using its missiles and drones, yet it only does so when threatened. Why would nukes be any different?
Their support of multiple factions in multiple neighbouring countries targeting than working constructively is also illogical and inflammatory
Iran is in direct competition with its Arab neighbors and Israel for regional supremacy; conflict between these camps is basically inevitable, especially with the Arab side being pro-America and Israel. Besides, their neighbors won't trade with them with Western sanctions in place, making this a moot point. Their support for these militias improves their image domestically and regionally (factions like Hamas and the Houthis are very popular in the Middle East), gives them regional power (Iraq and Lebanon being obvious examples, but also Syria when Assad was around), makes local US presence costly and allows them to open up new fronts against Israel basically on demand. Tf you mean illogical, it's downright genius (and very often evil, but that's not what we're talking about). Your position seems to hinge on the assumption that conflict is illogical, but there is such a thing as rational conflict. It's not like Iran hasn't tried to improve relations with its neighbors; it just does so on its own terms rather than America's. TL;DR: Your point is analogous to asking why Ukraine doesn't pursue better relations with Belarus.
no one is more fundamentalist than western regimes, they all will burn in hell for their crimes
No. Look at DPRK
Iran must have nukes for stability and safety of the region
Yeah.. ok fair point
Short term stability for sure, but I don't think Russia has been able to provide any more long term stability to anyone better than the US can. China maybe, but we haven't really seen this version of China show their true colors to a nation they don't consider part of their original borders.
Oh I'm considering this from the perspective of the regional reason for instability which for a while now has been Israel. For long-term stability, Israel should face mutually-assured-destruction from Iran without the promise of unlimited weapons and interceptors from US. Israel should also face existential threat from Iran if they expand in to neighbouring countries, like they're currently doing in Lebanon. If the US-Israel military command causes significant economic pain in the US, I think the US public opinion would force the US to break from Israel, which should usher the conditions I'm envisioning - of Israel facing Iran and the region alone, and perhaps even without unlimited US weapons. Def not the only possibility, but the one I think would make things a lot less explosive over the long haul.
E: I think China might push Iran to settle with the US in order to halt the economic destruction that would affect them too, possibly in exchange for greater economic China-Iran cooperation despite US sanctions.
Horrors. China is doing something the USA thinks only they are allowed to do.
Glory to Iran. May they be successful in their mission to push back the pedophile invaders.
Fitting, considering this war is merely a steppingstone to war with China.
"Fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is 'Never get involved in a land war in Asia,' but only slightly less well known is this: 'Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.'"
if it is, the USA is completely fucked… no amount of money can overcome this level of ineptitude
Well thats too bad.
Everyone had a nice easter? I hope you guys have monday off as well. I'm eating some crisps and watching DankPods
Based comment, have an upvote good Sir and a splendid easter!
US is learning the hard way what "soft power" means, and what it means to lose it.
They’re close to the “learning” part but, if the news is any indicator, they’re still a ways off.
Something about horses and water.
Tbf the US never had that much power, soft or otherwise, over China. The US is (very fortunately) hemorrhaging soft power, but even if they weren't China would be jumping at this opportunity.
I don't think it's so much about US having soft power over China. I agree they have always been highly resistant to it. The important bit is that Chinas soft power is growing faster than probably any nation's has since post WW2 US while US hemorrhages what little they have left in the coffers.
I don't present this as a good thing uniformly, because China is certainly capable of becoming fascist in a single generation too. I think this sort of power in general is problematic.
I'd say they're hemorrhaging hard power too, the US strategy was always to immediately establish air dominance and then win from there, but it turns out that step 1 kinda just doesn't work against people armed with more than old toyotas and tents. I'd still bet on the US to win if they just wanted to flatten some place but I've got serious questions on their ability to achieve a non-phyric victory against any near-peer after this display.
The ABC has been briefed on the intelligence by a source inside US defence, who says the images are endangering lives.
I see. The images are endangering lives. Not the moronic decision to start a war, no no.
"Only we can kill!"
common China W
China as a state, just like the US, is a massive piece of shit. It does not need deference.
True, but tbf they do have a lot of Ws. They also have a lot of Ls, but that's not the subject of this conversation.
Good to know that Russia isn’t helping its allies with their intelligence. In that case Trump would be very upset, if he could think.
"You're fighting back against our aggression? Hey, no fair!"
e: typo
Oh no! Anyway...
Breaking news: Iran's allies help them against an invading force.
For people who don't know, china doesn't have satellite imagery with the same spatial resolution as the private companies like planet labs (the one recently prohibited to publish imagery from the war region) do , but they have been investing a lot into super-resolution technology to compensate. This is much more interesting than it can look at a first glance.
Super-resolution as using generative models to "enhance" subresolution images with enough of the right training data?
Oh, that kind of super-resolution has been gaining media attention, but there's much more beyond the "ai". There are several mathematical methods, based on inverting a point-spread-function, statistical methods, super-resolution based on extracting subpixel information from a sequence of low resolution images, and several other methods and approaches, including the use of machine learning, but not in the generative way. It's a very diverse and complex field of research
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"Endangering lives"? Iran striking US bases will almost certainly lead to fewer lives lost.
~~Human~~ American lifes.
Not surprised at all. Don't fucking pretend China was not in game.....
both russia and china specifically, they both have satellites.
this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2026
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