Research Breakdown: Sudan’s Blood Visible from Space

Research Organization

Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at Yale School of Public Health

• Led by Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director
• Uses satellite imagery analysis combined with open-source intelligence (OSINT)
• Primary satellite imagery providers: Airbus Defence and Space, Vantor

Report Links:

• Yale HRL Main Report (October 27, 2025)
• Follow-up Report (October 28, 2025)
• Yale HRL Reports Archive

What Happened: The Fall of El-Fasher

Location: El-Fasher, capital of North Darfur, western Sudan

Timeline:

• 18-month siege by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) beginning around April 2024
• October 26-27, 2025: RSF captured the city after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) withdrew
• First 72 hours: Mass killings documented through satellite imagery
• Population trapped: ~250,000-260,000 civilians besieged; only ~65,000 escaped

Key Findings from Satellite Analysis

Visual Evidence Detected from Space:

1. Reddish-brown ground discoloration consistent with blood-soaked soil

• Multiple patches large enough to be visible from satellite imagery
• Discoloration not present in previous satellite images taken before October 26

1. Clusters of white objects measuring 1.3-2.0 meters

• Consistent with human bodies lying horizontally
• Found across multiple locations throughout the city

1. Locations where bodies/blood were detected:

• Residential neighborhoods (especially Daraja Oula district)
• Saudi Hospital grounds (last functioning hospital)
• Former Children’s Hospital (RSF detention center)
• Red Crescent Society offices
• Military bases (6th Division HQ, 157th Artillery Brigade)
• Along the earthen wall (berm) surrounding the city
• University grounds and medical science laboratory

Tactical Patterns Observed:

RSF military vehicles (technicals - gun-mounted trucks) consistently positioned near body clusters, indicating:

• Systematic house-to-house clearance operations
• Controlled movement and execution sites
• Deliberate positioning for mass killings

Evidence of fleeing civilians being targeted:

• 28 destroyed vehicles along escape routes
• Body clusters along roads and near the defensive berm
• Objects resembling bodies near vehicles attempting to flee

Methodology

Data Fusion Approach:

1. High-resolution satellite imagery analysis
2. Open-source intelligence (social media, local reports)
3. Video verification from multiple sources
4. Witness testimony correlation
5. Temporal analysis (comparing imagery across days)

Limitations acknowledged by researchers:

• Limited data availability in Sudan conflict zones
• Reporting bias from those able to communicate
• Difficulty assessing detention, sexual violence without ground access
• Satellite imagery limited by available coverage and angles

Scale of Violence

Estimated casualties:

• Yale HRL: Described as comparable to 1994 Rwanda genocide in velocity
• Local defense groups: Over 2,000 civilians killed in first 48 hours
• Sudan War Monitor: Estimated 3,000+ deaths by October 30
• Researchers: Likely tens of thousands killed in the first week
• WHO: 460+ executions at Saudi Hospital alone

Nathaniel Raymond’s assessment:

“We have never seen a velocity of violence at this scale… The level of violence and number of incidents in Darfur exceed anything I have seen so far.”

Patterns of Atrocities Documented

1. Gender-based targeting:

• Men separated from women and children
• Reports of men being executed after separation
• Women and children raped while fleeing

1. Medical facility attacks:

• Saudi Hospital: Mass executions of wounded patients and staff
• Red Crescent offices stormed, medics forced into combat vehicles
• All hospitals rendered non-functional

1. Systematic ethnic cleansing:

• Targeting of Fur, Zaghawa, and Berti ethnic groups
• House-to-house clearances in specific neighborhoods
• Racial epithets used in RSF videos of killings

1. Prevented escape:

• 57-kilometer berm wall entrapping population
• Checkpoints where fleeing civilians were killed
• Communications blackout preventing information flow

Historical Context

RSF Origins:

• Descended from Janjaweed militias responsible for 2003-2005 Darfur genocide
• Previously called “devils on horseback” for rape and murder campaigns
• Now use trucks, drones, and modern weapons instead of horses

Current Conflict:

• Sudan civil war began April 2023
• Power struggle between SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”)
• 12+ million displaced, considered world’s worst humanitarian crisis
• 30 million need emergency aid

US Determination:

• January 2025: US State Department determined RSF committed genocide in Darfur

International Response

Geopolitical Backing:

• United Arab Emirates (UAE) supplies RSF with weapons, drones, funds, and mercenaries
• British-manufactured arms components recovered from RSF combat zones
• IL-76 cargo aircraft (linked to UAE resupply) documented near El-Fasher

International Statements:

• Tom Fletcher (UN Under-Secretary-General): “Blood on the sand… Blood on [our] hands”
• German Foreign Minister: Called it “absolutely an apocalyptic situation, the greatest humanitarian crisis of the world”
• Peace talks sponsored by US stalled when UAE refused to address El-Fasher situation

Legal Framework: Yale HRL assessment: Actions may constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide

Current Situation (as of early November 2025)

• RSF controls all five Darfur state capitals
• Sudan effectively split east-west
• Most El-Fasher civilians remain “dead, captured, or in hiding”
• No large-scale movement of survivors detected
• Mass killings continuing through early November
• Communications blackout prevents accurate casualty counts

Comparative Historical Analysis

Raymond compared the velocity and systematic nature to:

• Rwanda 1994: ~800,000 killed by ethnic militias
• Current situation: Potentially exceeding Rwanda’s pace in affected areas

Sources & Further Reading

1. ABC News Report on Blood Visible from Space
2. NBC News: Visible from Space Analysis
3. Yale HRL Official Reports
4. Middle East Eye: Blood Splatter Visible from Space
5. Al Jazeera: Yale Report Findings
6. Globe and Mail: Signs of Massacres in Satellite Imagery
7. CBS News: Mass Killing Continuing
8. Kurdistan 24: Pools of Blood from Space

Note: This research represents one of the first documented instances where pools of human blood from mass killings were extensive enough to be detected and analyzed via commercial satellite imagery, marking a disturbing milestone in both conflict documentation and the scale of atrocities.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​