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The paper is here

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[-] skuzz@discuss.tchncs.de 6 points 1 day ago

Wonder how this contradicts the global dimming studies done during 9/11 when all flights over the US were grounded and things became warmer in the absence of contrails.

Things like this formula are great, and useful for gathering data on how bad a jet might be, but at the same time, this article is doing one of those classic media gambits: Blame the small-income individual.

Some parts of the world are only easily accessible by aircraft. Likewise, flying commercial is much more efficient than Taylor Swift's private jet zipping all over, and much more efficient than driving. This isn't the 1980s when people rode commuter flights between two cities by airplane for work every day.

Bob the individual can do nothing to change climate with regards to aircraft, that plane they might buy a ticket on, or not, will still be flying, to ship the cargo in the cargo hold, mail, and other things. Passengers are actually the last-place item on most flights from a revenue generator perspective.

Making private jets more cost-prohibitive is a good first step. They are exploding in popularity as the world literally burns. On land where land transportation is more viable, nations like the US should embrace trains instead of air. Also, in the US, flying is quickly becoming too expensive for a majority of the population, which means more people will revert to driving thousands of miles, which means net sum pollution will go up.

How much carbon one seat of hundreds on one plane of tens of thousands takes is inconsequential at this stage, there are much bigger pollution areas to be focusing on.

[-] HaraldvonBlauzahn@feddit.org 6 points 1 day ago

One question: Since contrails and water vapour stay far less time in the atmosphere than CO2, why should they have such large impact? Isn't one of the most serious aspect of the climate system's CO2 poisoning that CO2 stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years?

[-] pdqcp@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 5 hours ago

If you have the time, this is a great article on this subject: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/eliminating-contrails or this one https://notebook.contrails.org/comparing-contrails-and-co2/

Most of the warming from CO2 emissions is not due to the emissions this year, but the cumulative effect (which persists) over the past 80 years. But for contrails, the warming impact is only really from those created very recently as you mentioned, see this graph:

https://notebook.contrails.org/content/images/2025/08/2019_rf.svg

Contrails contribute roughly 2% to the world’s effective radiative forcing; tackling them would reduce that by a similar amount

We would only need to have 5% planes slightly redirected to avoid producing the most harmful contrails, which tackles around 80% of contrail climate warming avoided, and it would only cost on average $1 of avoiding warming equivalent to one tonne of CO₂

Reducing contrails does not mean we don’t also need to tackle CO2 emissions from aviation. Ultimately that is the persistent driver of long-term temperature change. What tackling contrails now would do is slightly reduce the rate of warming. It is not an excuse or a substitute for finding a way to decarbonise jet fuel.

[-] altasshet@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 day ago

Is there an actual calculator already using this model?

this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2025
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