Sort of. Digg’s implosion was much more immediate, the changes directly impacted normal users so it was easier to mobilise people, and at the time Reddit was a bit more mature and easier to understand than Lemmy/etc is now.

My guess is we’ll see much more of a Digg-like exodus once Apollo stops working and the average user sees an impact.

I'd say we're not at a Digg point just yet. The ingredients are there, but I feel the next big crisis, whatever it might be, might be the push over the cliff that does it. Hopefully kbin and the Fediverse get to a good point of maturity by then and can welcome the more casual redditors without a hitch.

Thing is, though, Reddit was offering Digg users something new in terms of user experience. I'm not sure federated content is that "it" factor for many.