Yes, starting stupid wars and botching them in front of the whole world makes you vulnerable.
Did invading France and Poland make nazis vulnerable? Ppl forget how close they got to totally annihilate Russia and win the WWII.
If I understand you correctly, read more history. the nazis invaded Poland together with the USSR on two fronts (as, you know, best buds), hard to botch that.
When the nazis invaded France...it was the French who fucked up...the nazis didn't.
Ofc I know the Poland partition, but to call them best buds after what happened later? Stalin may have believed that, but for Hitler it was more a tactical gambit.
I know the french should've tried to stop them in the border mountains, but still that's not the point here. I understand we were discussing the international reaction to attacking a country.
Best. Buds. Having a parade together in Brest, 1939. Getting betrayed is what you get for making deals with nazis. #leopardsatemyface
a) How are they destroying the submarines with cruise missiles?
b) This is only an issue if China or Russia seriously believed that the US would be likely to start World War 3, which seems pretty hard to believe.
If the US thought they could attack China and get away with it they wouldn't at first, but ten years in? You bet there'd be people questioning why the US is allowing [insert real or imagined Chinese human rights violation] on their watch. Is [current administration] really American enough?
That's my assessment as a Canadian. You average CCP guy probably thinks it would be immediate, and would involve Han Chinese being treated the way their regime treats minorities.
MAD only works because it's a Nash equilibrium not requiring good faith.
Edit: But yes, this specifically is not a good example of a MAD-threatening technology.
I too found it odd that there was no mention of missile submarines considering China has 6 and Russia has at least 8. This is as close as the article gets to mentioning them
“Our analysis predicts that only Russian mobile and Chinese deeply buried strategic systems may be considered at all survivable in the face of conventional missile attacks and are far more vulnerable than usually considered,” they add.
There are, the authors estimate, 150 Russian remote nuclear launch sites and 70 in China, approximately 2,500km (1,550 miles) from the nearest border, all of which could be reached by US air-launched JASSM and Tomahawk cruise missiles in a little more than two hours in an initial attack designed to prevent nuclear weapons being launched.
Emphasis mine, I'm pretty sure even Russia can notice hundreds of cruise missiles are heading directly at their silos and figure out that this looks like an attack on their strategic nuclear arsenal in two whole hours, given that ICBMs take around a quarter of that from launch to impact.
And even if these cruise missiles were completely undetectable, it would still fail unless the strike takes out 100% of the enemy nukes. If even one is able to survive, you risk a nuclear holocaust.
Being able to theoretically wipe our all the enemy nukes without using any of your own is strategically nice to have, but on its own it isn't enough to negate the threat of a nuclear exchange. At best, it should make your enemy more reluctant to retaliate with a nuclear launch, assuming they realize that they aren't getting nuked and that a launch would potentially change that.
Yeah, the West pushing the first strike and anti-second-strike envelope is a real problem, but that's not a good example.
Ill have to tell ya all. Im not real concerned on that front. IF china was a neighbor that india, japan, korea, and such was good with they could have a nice european union thing going.
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against arms control agreements if they're interested. Are they interested though?
Remind me again who pulled out of arms control agreements first?
The real question is if the US would be interested.
I'd imagine yes, but primarily since they're behind.
That still counts
Sucks to suck?
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