68
A critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests (www.cnn.com)
submitted 1 month ago by lemmee_in@lemm.ee to c/collapse@sopuli.xyz
8 comments fedilink hide all child comments

A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents that influences weather across the world could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested in a new study — a planetary-scale disaster that would transform weather and climate.

Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change.

But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed and hasn’t yet been published in a journal, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064.

This research suggests it’s more likely than not to collapse by 2050.

Like a conveyor belt, the AMOC pulls warm surface water from the southern hemisphere and the tropics and distributes it in the cold North Atlantic. The colder, saltier water then sinks and flows south. The mechanism keeps parts of the Southern Hemisphere from overheating and parts of the Northern Hemisphere from getting unbearably cold, while distributing nutrients that sustain life in marine ecosystems.

The impacts of an AMOC collapse would leave parts of the world unrecognizable.

An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research.

top 8 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[-] TheDemonBuer@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago

An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,”

Hmm, that seems quite alarmist to me. It's probably a hoax, but even if it isn't, the effects are likely being over blown. An AMOC collapse would only cause a slight drop in GDP, a couple percentage points only, and it's probably already priced in on stock markets. I also believe in the power of entrepreneurship to find solutions. I've got it! We dump a whole heck of a lot of salt into the ocean. Boom! I'll head the start-up. We'll just get our capital from investors like Black Rock and Bill Gates. Oh, and governments, of course. We'll get governments to pay us to drive massive, diesel powered cargo ships, loaded with salt, out to the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. See, market solutions. Oh man, ecological collapse is going to generate so much profit and shareholder value. Take that, doomers. /s

[-] cybermass@lemmy.ca 6 points 1 month ago

That was one large sarcastic statement lol

[-] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 9 points 1 month ago

At this point I need the scientists to start really working in vocabulary like “Fucked” and “Doomed”. We are past the point where anyone will pay attention to the understated polite approach.

[-] lemmee_in@lemm.ee 2 points 1 month ago

That's the problem there's no common consensus from scientists. What is happening right now is similar to the scenario from The Day After Tomorrow, scientists debate and offer their theories.

from phys.org today

Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points

A study published in Science Advances reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests.

These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, as the study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought.

Climate scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have identified three primary sources of uncertainty.

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-day-tomorrow-climate.html

Also as Rahmstof said.

“There’s now five papers, basically, that suggested it could well happen in this century, or even before the middle of the century,” Rahmstof said. “My overall assessment is now that the risk of us passing the tipping point in this century is probably even greater than 50%.”

While the advances in AMOC research have been swift and the models that try to predict its collapse have advanced at lightning speed, they are still not without issues.

This research gap means the predictions could underestimate how soon or fast a collapse would happen.

[-] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 month ago

That’s the point though.

They don’t have to be right.

They need to scare the shit out of the people who could maybe get some traction in addressing this thing. There have been a disproportionate amount of tipping point events happening far sooner than predicted, and/or worse than expected. Anything we can do to get people to actually act is worthwhile.

[-] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 month ago

You shut your whore mouth, you socialist. Capitalism profits on the misery of others, and that’s the way we like it!

/s

[-] walter_wiggles@lemmy.nz 6 points 1 month ago

If only there was a way for capitalism to profit on fixing things...

this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2024
68 points (100.0% liked)

Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

1039 readers
9 users here now

A place to share news, experiences and discussion about the continuing climate crisis, societal collapse, and biosphere collapse. Please be respectful of each other and remember the human.

Long live the Lützerath Mud Wizard.

Useful Links:

DISCORD - Collapse

Earth - A Global Map of Wind, Weather and Ocean Conditions - Use the menu at bottom left to toggle different views. For example, you can see where wildfires/smoke are by selecting "Chem - COsc" to see carbon monoxide (CO) surface concentration.

Climate Reanalyzer (University of Maine) - A source for daily updated average global air temps, sea surface temps, sea ice, weather and more.

National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (US) - Information about ENSO and weather predictions.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Global Temperature Rankings Outlook (US) - Tool that is updated each month, concurrent with the release of the monthly global climate report.

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System - Government of Canada

Surging Seas Risk Zone Map - For discovering which areas could be underwater soon.

Check out our sister sub for collapse-related memes and silly stuff, Faster Than Expected!
AKA
c/fte@supoli.xyz

Alternative community on Reddthat

If there are any links you think are important that should be added to the list, please send a message and let me know.

Thanks for coming to c/collapse!

This is a supoli.xyz community.
SUPOLI GENERAL RULES:

  1. Remember the human! (no harassment, threats, etc.)
  2. No racism or other discrimination
  3. No Nazis, QAnon or similar whackos and no endorsement of them
  4. No porn
  5. No ads or spam
  6. No content against Finnish law

Supoli FAQ

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
0101010001110100@sopuli.xyz