The article’s thesis:
The race is now wide open and the bookies and gamblers are just guessing — like everybody else.
Wow, what a terrible headline. Wtf man
I don't care what celebrities have to say about politics, why the fuck would I listen to a mother fucking bookie!?
Well, they have money on the line.
Yeah, and if I had to guess, they've hedged their bets and they have money on both sides of the line.
Don't know shit abt gambling but if you can do that and not lose money doesn't that defeat the entire purpose of gambling
It's what bookies do.
They set the payouts and take bets from both sides so that the losers pay for the winners.
After a little work it's just math and turning away bets / adjusting payouts when you're already too heavy on that side.
And your profit comes from putting your finger on the scale.
doesn't that defeat the entire purpose of gambling
In that it makes it not a gamble anymore yes, but if you get your math correct there's a way you can at least break even no matter what, especially if it's not a true gamble and there's fundamentals behind your bet to study.
Of course If you're doing this much work it's no longer fun, so it's definitely not appealing to those who like gambling purely for the thrill.
Do they?
Or are they just Republicans who are losing money on purpose to make it appear that the odds favor Trump?
We're talking about Tech-bros and Cryptocoin-bros here. (Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, DJT SPAC bullshittery, etc. etc.). These are people who are 100% willing to (spend other people's money) to pump up fake metrics.
These are literally the same people who are willing to lose money on meme-stocks for the lulz. They don't actually care about making money.
I'm not sure that being perceived as the "favorite" is something that either party wants at this point. Being the favorite comes with a bunch of negatives.
My point is that "betting markets" are bullshit.
You assume that everyone in the "betting market" is actually trying to make money. When in fact, a large number of people are doing it for the lulz, and a minor number of people (ex: campaigns) are actively trying to spend money to manipulate public opinion.
why the fuck would I listen to a mother fucking bookie!?
It depends. If they're just spouting off numbers for the sake of spouting off numbers, then their opinion is no more or less important than any other random citizen.
But if they're actually backing up those numbers with money, then they've got at least some data to back them up unless they really, really hate money.
I'm not saying I'd take their word as gospel, but if they're willing to put money on the line, I'm going to at least consider their opinion something worth looking into.
So… if I bet on Harris, I can earn some money and win too?
Nearly! Wow.
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