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submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by Emperor@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

It's time to see if the polls are right.

Previously: the voting megathread

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 58 points 2 months ago

First Past the Post, everybody:

That's:

  • Conservatives: 19.5% of seats from 22.9% of the vote
  • Labour: 63.7% of seats from 35.2% of the vote
  • LibDems: 10.5% of seats from 11.3% of the vote
  • Reform: 0.6% of seats from 14.5% of the vote
  • SNP: 1.2% of seats from 2.5% of the vote
  • Others: 4% of seats from 13.6% of the vote
[-] Mrkawfee@feddit.uk 42 points 2 months ago

The two largest parties got less than 60% of the national vote but over 80% of seats. FPTP is preventing us from being what we are: a multi party democracy.

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[-] PhylMoel@feddit.uk 40 points 2 months ago

It's a Tory wipeout in Wales!

CON: 0 (-12)

[-] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 27 points 2 months ago

Ree Smog is out! I repeat, Ree Smog is out!

Yes, despite many leftists decrying Labour's centreward shift, I think this is a good result. This result was helped by that shift in no small part.

Starmer is very well spoken and his morning after speech does well to inspire confidence.

[-] Luvs2Spuj@lemmy.world 14 points 2 months ago

Top hat wanker! Truss lost too, this is amazing.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 11 points 2 months ago

Oh good, so now Truss can now piss off too the US and moan about the apparent conspiracy that was against her all she likes, and it won't inconvenience her constituents anymore.

And of course no one in the US will really care, because will have no idea who the hell she is.

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[-] Luvs2Spuj@lemmy.world 27 points 2 months ago

I'm watching the BBC program, currently just discussing the exit poll before any official results.

Exit poll shows conservatives losing 241 seats, Labour landslide predicted with 410 seats. Not a huge surprise, but a welcome start.

I did find it entertaining that the labour guest in the show is congratulating Kier Starmer and Co. On a job well done, when really this is almost entirely caused by Tory self destruction.

[-] sanguinepar@lemmy.world 17 points 2 months ago

Peter Mandelson? I think he had a point in that Starmer has changed the party from unelectable with Corbyn (which sadly, they were) to a more than realistic prospect for a sensible alternative to the Tories.

You're right of course that the Conservatives have utterly fucked the pooch (not to mention the country) but Starmer has nonetheless made a massive change in making the party palatable to many, many more people (not that I personally agree with quite a lot of his policies and policy reversals)

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[-] Vittelius@feddit.de 17 points 2 months ago

here is the entire exit poll for everyone interested btw:

[-] UKFilmNerd@feddit.uk 23 points 2 months ago

I don't want to see Reform get any seats really when it's filled with people like this.

They're just a live action version of the Daily Mail. They only believe immigrants and trans people are a problem because Farage and his crew tell them so. Otherwise I bet those groups of people have barely any impact on their daily lives whatsoever.

[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 21 points 2 months ago

Jacob Rees Mogg suggesting Conservatives were demolished because they weren't far right enough. Interviewer says "don't you think maybe it's because you let down the centre?" And Mogg is like "no way. Maggy Thatcher is based."

😬

[-] Skullgrid@lemmy.world 25 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I mean, I hate him, but he's right. Reform are basically the newest farage far right party, so the rabid nazis of britain aren't satisfied with the bullshit the tories are serving up.

EDIT : they got fed up of still seeing ethnic minorities after brexit, and don't want to vote for an ethnic minority for prime minister. It's disgusting.

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[-] Emperor@feddit.uk 21 points 2 months ago

Just seen Count Binface arrive for the count, shit just got real.

[-] twinnie@feddit.uk 21 points 2 months ago

Looks like Reform got a lot of votes despite not getting many seats. Those nasty cunts aren’t going to shut up about this for the next 4 years.

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[-] AFC1886VCC@reddthat.com 19 points 2 months ago

Happy to see the Tories get obliterated, but not feeling confident about the incoming Labour government. The fact that a bunch of Tories defected to them and they were endorsed by the Sun is a bad sign IMO.

[-] thehatfox@lemmy.world 19 points 2 months ago

After seeing the first few results come in, my main worry is how Starmer's Labour will react to the rise of Reform. If Labour cannot visibly begin to turn things around, and they also fail to effectively counter the building populist undercurrent, we could be heading for some dark times.

We will have to see what exactly Starmer's Labour will actually do once it has power.

[-] sanguinepar@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Two Tories defected to them, and neither of them were standing for election this time, it was just a gesture against Sunak (although I do wish Labour had told them to fuck off).

And as for the S*n, they just put their weight behind whoever is going to win.

Labour and Starmer are far from perfect, but I think they will be far better, even if just from a competence and basic human decency standpoint.

[-] thehatfox@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago

And as for the S*n, they just put their weight behind whoever is going to win.

I was a bit surprised the S*n did switch to Labour. From what I've heard there still a grudge amongst Murdoch and his minions towards Starmer, due the prosecutions he pursued as DPP during the phone hacking scandal.

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[-] Luvs2Spuj@lemmy.world 18 points 2 months ago

This is as late as I can stand. I'll check back in the morning for the final scores. If it was anything resembling a closer election I might have stayed up. I'm hoping the exit poll has over estimated the tories and reform, with a few extra opposition parties.

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[-] Darkard@lemmy.world 18 points 2 months ago

The entire C4 panel laughed at Nadine when she just couldn't stop talking about Boris Johnson

[-] blackn1ght@feddit.uk 18 points 2 months ago

It blows my mind that Tory candidates get even a single vote. Who's voting for them?!

[-] RedStrawberry 23 points 2 months ago

And reform, its bloody terrifing seeing them get so much support

[-] blackn1ght@feddit.uk 11 points 2 months ago

Yup. They've been coming second in most results so far. Not sure how much of it is a protest vote against the big two or people like their policies.

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 17 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

It's subtle, but see if you can tell what party she represents. (lower third graphic unrelated)

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 17 points 2 months ago

I've just switched over to watch Sky News' feed on YouTube. The allow chat, which for a serious news organisation is absolutely wild to me.

And the chatters are absolutely insane. Not in a good way. There's no attempt to discuss anything, just people spamming "πŸ’™πŸ’™ REFORM IS RISING πŸ’™πŸ’™" and "πŸŸ₯πŸŸ₯ Labour Forever πŸŸ₯πŸŸ₯πŸŸ₯πŸŸ₯". And weirdest of all, many variations on "netherite helmet trim".

Wtf does netherite helmet trim mean?

[-] Emperor@feddit.uk 24 points 2 months ago

Minecraft.

And the chatters are absolutely insane. Not in a good way. There’s no attempt to discuss anything, just people spamming β€œπŸ’™πŸ’™ REFORM IS RISING πŸ’™πŸ’™β€

Reform have an online army that swarms comment threads. Not sure how many of them are based in Russia.

[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 10 points 2 months ago

Minecraft

Oh yeah I worked that out thanks to Google. But I don't get the connection to the election, or why so many people were spamming it.

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[-] cupcakezealot 15 points 2 months ago

the proper way to watch youtube chat is to click on the x.

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[-] MrNesser@lemmy.world 17 points 2 months ago

Starting the day and seeing Rees snob, grant schnapps and penny mordor are out.

Feels like a good start to the day

Oh and Liz snubbed

[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 16 points 2 months ago

Aww, Sunak retains.

Also, the ITV guy referred to Count Binface as "Mister". The disrespect. 😞

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[-] PrettyFlyForAFatGuy@feddit.uk 15 points 2 months ago

I'm in maidstone, as blue as it gets. i'll be watching everyone else turn red with envy

[-] britishblaze@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

NW Cambridgeshire here, it's never been anything but Blue since it's formation, I still doubt it would change.

Edit: It went Labour by 40 votes. Damn never felt my vote mattered more than now. And thank you Reform for splitting it so close.

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 15 points 2 months ago

Holy shit the crowd's reaction at Jeremy Corbyn getting 24,000. 😲

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[-] mannycalavera@feddit.uk 15 points 2 months ago

Anyone got that link that recalculates the results of the GE by different voting systems? For example if we had a form of PR how would this election turned out? I swear it was posted here a few days ago.

[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 10 points 2 months ago

Direct proportional representation is easy enough. Just look at the number of votes each party got, and assign that percentage to their overall parliamentary representation. That roughly gives you the answer.

IRV is more interesting, but more complicated. It relies on some assumptions (e.g. Green, SNP, LibDem, Labour all preference each other 100%, Conservatives & Reform preference each other 100%) and takes a lot of effort to do on a seat-by-seat basis. And of course it all assumes ceteris paribus, when in actuality people would vote differently if the voting system were different.

As one example, here's the seat of Tatton:

Under IRV, with the above assumptions, Labour's Ryan Jude would have won with 26,005 votes to Conservative Esther McVey's 25,904. But tweak those assumptions just slightly (give 90% of LibDem votes to Labour, 10% to Conservatives) and it could go the other way (26,365 CON to 25,544 LAB). There are dozens or scores of seats where these sorts of interesting hypotheticals can be asked and analysed. IRV is actually, in my opinion, the next-worst voting system after FPTP (if you exclude weird and rarely-used ones like approval voting, range voting, etc.), but it's one of the most interesting to do analysis with.

STV is an utterly impossible comparison to make, because it relies on multi-seat electorates, which would probably be done by merging existing electorates into groups of 3–8. STV is a more generalised case of IRV so if you decided on how to do those merges, then you can get even more interesting analysis. As one example, if we imagine a merged electorate involving West Ham, East Ham, Ilford North, Ilford South, Leyton & Wanstead, and Stratford & Bow. Some assumptions are necessary to make this work, my assumption is that anyone whose party name says "workers" or "socialist" preferences Green and then Labour, while those mentioning religion preference Conservative, and if I don't know, I'm giving them to LibDems then Labour. I'm also assuming all voters for a named party vote as a block, preferencing the same candidate 1st, 2nd, etc., while independents get the votes as they were actually given. This is somewhat realistic because ballot paper design can be set up to encourage this in an STV context (see how Australia does it with "above the line" voting in the Senate, for an example). I've merged the minor parties named "workers" or "socialist" into a single party.

A detailed explanation of my calculation is contained here.In our merged hypothetical under STV, they win 3.03 quotas on first preference, Conservative wins 0.88, Reform 0.41, LibDem 0.28, Green 0.78. So Labour immediately win 3 seats, before 0.03 quotas are distributed lower down in their party. After numerous more rounds (my attached spreadsheet simplifies multiple rounds that by eye would obviously not result in a new quota being reached being merged down into 1), the LibDems win a quota. I've decided to distribute their excess 50/50 to Green and Conservative, since Labour has already been eliminated. To be frank, after that I'm not sure what to do. LibDems having been eliminated, the 3 remaining independents can't go to them as was my initial plan (the basic thinking being independents are probably more centrist, but LibDems and Labour being eliminated already. I've decided to give them 50/50 to Conservative and Green, but the reality could be so, so much more complex. After one of those is eliminated, Conservatives get a quota. One final independent distributed to Conservatives/Green and the Greens win the last quota.

This is Labour heartland and in FPTP Labour won all 6 of these seats. My calculation ends up with 3 Labour, 1 LibDem, 1 Conservative, and 1 Green.

MMP ends up with basically the same overall result as direct proportional, but can be interesting in terms of independents & very minor parties and resulting overhang seats.

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 15 points 2 months ago

I figure satire articles probably aren't allowed in the general community, but hopefully it's ok in the megathread? This was brilliant.

https://theshovel.com.au/2024/07/05/australia-loses-shortest-time-to-5-pms-ashes/

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[-] JohnSmith@feddit.uk 14 points 2 months ago

Toot-toot, moog got the boot!

[-] tankplanker@lemmy.world 14 points 2 months ago

So looking forward to the next five years...

Looking at how Reform and Lib Dems made significant gains in vote share you have to wonder if its still worth Labour chasing after the right wing vote that Reform achieved. I just do not see the where the voters who voted Reform actually believe Starmer on the key issues that Reform campaigned on, immigration, anti "woke", and Brexit. I cannot see Labour ever gaining the lead on those issues over someone like Farage who will always position himself to the right of whatever Labour or the Tories campaign on. I cant even see Labour being trusted at the voting booth on these right wing issues over a rebuilt Tory party. Its a fools errand to try.

The Lib Dem vote share, as with Reform, boosted by previous Tory voters but Lib Dems campaigned on almost the opposite of Reform (with some tactical, local, NIMBYism) and achieved way more seats on a lower overall percentage vote than Reform. If you are going to pick a direction to go in, wouldn't it make more sense to move towards the Lib Dems position to shore up in time for the next election?

Labour did worse total percentage of the vote than 2017, its more that the Tories collapsed losing about 20% of their vote that caused this swing in seats. The Tories will rally next time around and a lot of the seats look winnable for them with only a small local swing. The current stance of Labour simply isn't popular enough to be a vote winner against a rebuilt Tory party.

[-] thatKamGuy@sh.itjust.works 18 points 2 months ago

As an Australian, I have to once again apologise on behalf of my nation for the turd in a tuxedo that is Rupert Murdoch.

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[-] thehatfox@lemmy.world 14 points 2 months ago

Truss is out! Defeated by Labour candidate Terry Jermy by only 630 votes.

[-] echodot@feddit.uk 10 points 2 months ago

The fact it was even close is ridiculous. She's the most terrible MP and PM we've ever had and yet she got a large number of people to vote for her.

There's something in the water over there.

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[-] Skua@kbin.earth 13 points 2 months ago

The fuck happened in Leicester East that it's the sole Con gain in the country?

[-] theo@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Their last two Labour MPs not only were kicked out in scandal, but also ran in this election splitting the vote. It looks like the Lib Dems also got a significant vote share which has helped the Tories.

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[-] Mrkawfee@feddit.uk 11 points 2 months ago

Labours majority is huge but vulnerable. It's clear that Reform bled millions of votes away from the Tories.

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[-] fakeman_pretendname@feddit.uk 10 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Quick question - does anyone have the link to that "Tories being voted out" bingo card website? It was posted a few days ago, but I can't find it.

[EDIT] Found it - Feddit thread - I've probably not formatted the link properly
Torygeddon Bingo Website

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this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2024
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